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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Trends

Trends

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  • George KG Offline
    George KG Offline
    George K
    wrote on last edited by
    #36

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

    Screenshot 2022-10-29 at 6.51.13 AM.png

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

    Screenshot 2022-10-29 at 6.52.38 AM.png

    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • LuFins DadL Offline
      LuFins DadL Offline
      LuFins Dad
      wrote on last edited by LuFins Dad
      #37

      You can play with the model here by picking the winners of some of the more contested states. If Budd wins in NC (where he is strongly favored), tge model favors Republicans 59-41. If Budd and Vance both win, it jumps to 67-33. These are races that Rams are projected to win…https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

      The Brad

      1 Reply Last reply
      • taiwan_girlT Offline
        taiwan_girlT Offline
        taiwan_girl
        wrote on last edited by
        #38

        Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

        1 Reply Last reply
        • LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins Dad
          wrote on last edited by
          #39

          @taiwan_girl said in Trends:

          Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

          There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

          1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

          2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

          The Brad

          taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
          • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

            @taiwan_girl said in Trends:

            Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

            There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

            1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

            2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

            taiwan_girlT Offline
            taiwan_girlT Offline
            taiwan_girl
            wrote on last edited by
            #40

            @LuFins-Dad Good points!

            1 Reply Last reply
            • George KG Offline
              George KG Offline
              George K
              wrote on last edited by
              #41

              Screenshot 2022-10-31 at 5.22.51 PM.png

              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • JollyJ Offline
                JollyJ Offline
                Jolly
                wrote on last edited by
                #42

                Nailbiter here...

                https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                • JollyJ Jolly

                  Nailbiter here...

                  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

                  George KG Offline
                  George KG Offline
                  George K
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #43

                  @Jolly that poll only had two genders as choice.

                  C'mon, man person!

                  "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                  The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #44

                    My bet? Senate either stays at 50/50 with Kamala giving Dems majority status or Republicans win at 53 seats.

                    The Brad

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • George KG Offline
                      George KG Offline
                      George K
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #45

                      "Trends"

                      Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 9.26.30 AM.png

                      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • George KG George K

                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                        New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                        Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                        LuFins DadL Offline
                        LuFins DadL Offline
                        LuFins Dad
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #46

                        @George-K said in Trends:

                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                        New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                        Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                        RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                        The Brad

                        George KG JollyJ 2 Replies Last reply
                        • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                          @George-K said in Trends:

                          @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                          New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                          Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                          RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                          George KG Offline
                          George KG Offline
                          George K
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #47

                          @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                          RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                          Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                          LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                          • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                            @George-K said in Trends:

                            @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                            New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                            Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                            RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                            JollyJ Offline
                            JollyJ Offline
                            Jolly
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #48

                            @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                            @George-K said in Trends:

                            @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                            New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                            Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                            RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                            Latest Trafalgar has him up by one (and trending).

                            “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                            Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • George KG George K

                              @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                              RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                              Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                              LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins Dad
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #49

                              @George-K said in Trends:

                              @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                              RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                              Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                              54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

                              The Brad

                              CopperC 1 Reply Last reply
                              • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                @George-K said in Trends:

                                @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                                54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

                                CopperC Offline
                                CopperC Offline
                                Copper
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #50

                                @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting

                                If 2024 doesn't go to the dem, I expect Ms. Harris will overturn the election.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • MikM Away
                                  MikM Away
                                  Mik
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #51

                                  The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.

                                  “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                  George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • JollyJ Offline
                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    Jolly
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #52

                                    True dat.

                                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • MikM Mik

                                      The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.

                                      George KG Offline
                                      George KG Offline
                                      George K
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #53

                                      @Mik said in Trends:

                                      someone like Tim Ryan

                                      If Ryan loses, are his aspirations halted?

                                      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • JollyJ Offline
                                        JollyJ Offline
                                        Jolly
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #54

                                        I think they take a huge hit.

                                        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • MikM Away
                                          MikM Away
                                          Mik
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #55

                                          Yep. He could run to get back in the House, but his presidential ambitions, which I think are very real, will be toast for now.

                                          “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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