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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Trends

Trends

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  • LuFins DadL Offline
    LuFins DadL Offline
    LuFins Dad
    wrote on last edited by
    #31

    New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory. 54 is a legitimate number for the Rs…

    The Brad

    George KG 1 Reply Last reply
    • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

      New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory. 54 is a legitimate number for the Rs…

      George KG Offline
      George KG Offline
      George K
      wrote on last edited by
      #32

      @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

      New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

      Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

      LuFins DadL 2 Replies Last reply
      • HoraceH Online
        HoraceH Online
        Horace
        wrote on last edited by
        #33

        why are they italicizing those words? meant to remove doubt as to whether they're editorialized? Maybe the italics is meant to convey that they are defined labels for certain probability ranges.

        Education is extremely important.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • George KG George K

          @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

          New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

          Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

          LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins Dad
          wrote on last edited by
          #34

          @George-K said in Trends:

          @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

          New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

          Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

          Trends…

          https://www.axios.com/2022/10/25/new-hampshire-senate-republicans-bolduc

          Look at the last 4 polls for NH- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

          The Brad

          1 Reply Last reply
          • taiwan_girlT Offline
            taiwan_girlT Offline
            taiwan_girl
            wrote on last edited by
            #35
            This post is deleted!
            1 Reply Last reply
            • George KG Offline
              George KG Offline
              George K
              wrote on last edited by
              #36

              https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

              Screenshot 2022-10-29 at 6.51.13 AM.png

              https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

              Screenshot 2022-10-29 at 6.52.38 AM.png

              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins Dad
                wrote on last edited by LuFins Dad
                #37

                You can play with the model here by picking the winners of some of the more contested states. If Budd wins in NC (where he is strongly favored), tge model favors Republicans 59-41. If Budd and Vance both win, it jumps to 67-33. These are races that Rams are projected to win…https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

                The Brad

                1 Reply Last reply
                • taiwan_girlT Offline
                  taiwan_girlT Offline
                  taiwan_girl
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #38

                  Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #39

                    @taiwan_girl said in Trends:

                    Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

                    There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

                    1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

                    2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

                    The Brad

                    taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
                    • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                      @taiwan_girl said in Trends:

                      Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

                      There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

                      1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

                      2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

                      taiwan_girlT Offline
                      taiwan_girlT Offline
                      taiwan_girl
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #40

                      @LuFins-Dad Good points!

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • George KG Offline
                        George KG Offline
                        George K
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #41

                        Screenshot 2022-10-31 at 5.22.51 PM.png

                        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • JollyJ Offline
                          JollyJ Offline
                          Jolly
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #42

                          Nailbiter here...

                          https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                          George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                          • JollyJ Jolly

                            Nailbiter here...

                            https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

                            George KG Offline
                            George KG Offline
                            George K
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #43

                            @Jolly that poll only had two genders as choice.

                            C'mon, man person!

                            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins Dad
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #44

                              My bet? Senate either stays at 50/50 with Kamala giving Dems majority status or Republicans win at 53 seats.

                              The Brad

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • George KG Offline
                                George KG Offline
                                George K
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #45

                                "Trends"

                                Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 9.26.30 AM.png

                                "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • George KG George K

                                  @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                  New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                                  Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                                  LuFins DadL Offline
                                  LuFins DadL Offline
                                  LuFins Dad
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #46

                                  @George-K said in Trends:

                                  @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                  New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                                  Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                                  RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                  The Brad

                                  George KG JollyJ 2 Replies Last reply
                                  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                    @George-K said in Trends:

                                    @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                    New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                                    Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                                    RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                    George KG Offline
                                    George KG Offline
                                    George K
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #47

                                    @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                    RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                    Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                                    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                    LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                      @George-K said in Trends:

                                      @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                      New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                                      Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                                      RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                      JollyJ Offline
                                      JollyJ Offline
                                      Jolly
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #48

                                      @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                      @George-K said in Trends:

                                      @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                      New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                                      Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                                      RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                      Latest Trafalgar has him up by one (and trending).

                                      “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                      Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • George KG George K

                                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                        RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                        Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                                        LuFins DadL Offline
                                        LuFins DadL Offline
                                        LuFins Dad
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #49

                                        @George-K said in Trends:

                                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                        RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                        Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                                        54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

                                        The Brad

                                        CopperC 1 Reply Last reply
                                        • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                          @George-K said in Trends:

                                          @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                          RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                          Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                                          54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

                                          CopperC Offline
                                          CopperC Offline
                                          Copper
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #50

                                          @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                          54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting

                                          If 2024 doesn't go to the dem, I expect Ms. Harris will overturn the election.

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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