Trends

[LuFins Dad]

@taiwan_girl said in Trends:

Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

[taiwan_girl]

@LuFins-Dad Good points!

[George K]

[Jolly]

Nailbiter here...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

[George K]

@Jolly that poll only had two genders as choice.

C'mon, man person!

[LuFins Dad]

My bet? Senate either stays at 50/50 with Kamala giving Dems majority status or Republicans win at 53 seats.

[George K]

"Trends"

[LuFins Dad]

@George-K said in Trends:

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

[George K]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

[Jolly]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

@George-K said in Trends:

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

Latest Trafalgar has him up by one (and trending).

[LuFins Dad]

@George-K said in Trends:

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

[Copper]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting

If 2024 doesn't go to the dem, I expect Ms. Harris will overturn the election.

[Mik]

The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.

[Jolly]

True dat.

[George K]

@Mik said in Trends:

someone like Tim Ryan

If Ryan loses, are his aspirations halted?

[Jolly]

I think they take a huge hit.

[Mik]

Yep. He could run to get back in the House, but his presidential ambitions, which I think are very real, will be toast for now.

[LuFins Dad]

Should it hit 55-45 in favor of the Republicans, I will be curious to see if it says Dead Heat or Slightly Favored…

[Horace]

I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

[LuFins Dad]

@Horace said in Trends:

I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

Strictly is a bit debatable.