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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Trends

Trends

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  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

    New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory. 54 is a legitimate number for the Rs…

    George KG Offline
    George KG Offline
    George K
    wrote on last edited by
    #32

    @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

    New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

    Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

    LuFins DadL 2 Replies Last reply
    • HoraceH Offline
      HoraceH Offline
      Horace
      wrote on last edited by
      #33

      why are they italicizing those words? meant to remove doubt as to whether they're editorialized? Maybe the italics is meant to convey that they are defined labels for certain probability ranges.

      Education is extremely important.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • George KG George K

        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

        New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

        Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote on last edited by
        #34

        @George-K said in Trends:

        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

        New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

        Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

        Trends…

        https://www.axios.com/2022/10/25/new-hampshire-senate-republicans-bolduc

        Look at the last 4 polls for NH- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

        The Brad

        1 Reply Last reply
        • taiwan_girlT Offline
          taiwan_girlT Offline
          taiwan_girl
          wrote on last edited by
          #35
          This post is deleted!
          1 Reply Last reply
          • George KG Offline
            George KG Offline
            George K
            wrote on last edited by
            #36

            https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

            Screenshot 2022-10-29 at 6.51.13 AM.png

            https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

            Screenshot 2022-10-29 at 6.52.38 AM.png

            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • LuFins DadL Offline
              LuFins DadL Offline
              LuFins Dad
              wrote on last edited by LuFins Dad
              #37

              You can play with the model here by picking the winners of some of the more contested states. If Budd wins in NC (where he is strongly favored), tge model favors Republicans 59-41. If Budd and Vance both win, it jumps to 67-33. These are races that Rams are projected to win…https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

              The Brad

              1 Reply Last reply
              • taiwan_girlT Offline
                taiwan_girlT Offline
                taiwan_girl
                wrote on last edited by
                #38

                Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

                1 Reply Last reply
                • LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins Dad
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #39

                  @taiwan_girl said in Trends:

                  Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

                  There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

                  1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

                  2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

                  The Brad

                  taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
                  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                    @taiwan_girl said in Trends:

                    Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

                    There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

                    1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

                    2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

                    taiwan_girlT Offline
                    taiwan_girlT Offline
                    taiwan_girl
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #40

                    @LuFins-Dad Good points!

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • George KG Offline
                      George KG Offline
                      George K
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #41

                      Screenshot 2022-10-31 at 5.22.51 PM.png

                      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • JollyJ Offline
                        JollyJ Offline
                        Jolly
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #42

                        Nailbiter here...

                        https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

                        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                        George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                        • JollyJ Jolly

                          Nailbiter here...

                          https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

                          George KG Offline
                          George KG Offline
                          George K
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #43

                          @Jolly that poll only had two genders as choice.

                          C'mon, man person!

                          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins Dad
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #44

                            My bet? Senate either stays at 50/50 with Kamala giving Dems majority status or Republicans win at 53 seats.

                            The Brad

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • George KG Offline
                              George KG Offline
                              George K
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #45

                              "Trends"

                              Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 9.26.30 AM.png

                              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • George KG George K

                                @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                                Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                                LuFins DadL Offline
                                LuFins DadL Offline
                                LuFins Dad
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #46

                                @George-K said in Trends:

                                @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                                Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                                RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                The Brad

                                George KG JollyJ 2 Replies Last reply
                                • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                  @George-K said in Trends:

                                  @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                  New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                                  Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                                  RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                  George KG Offline
                                  George KG Offline
                                  George K
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #47

                                  @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                  RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                  Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                                  "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                  The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                  LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                    @George-K said in Trends:

                                    @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                    New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                                    Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                                    RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    Jolly
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #48

                                    @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                    @George-K said in Trends:

                                    @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                    New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                                    Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                                    RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                    Latest Trafalgar has him up by one (and trending).

                                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • George KG George K

                                      @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                      RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                      Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                                      LuFins DadL Offline
                                      LuFins DadL Offline
                                      LuFins Dad
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #49

                                      @George-K said in Trends:

                                      @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                      RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                      Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                                      54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

                                      The Brad

                                      CopperC 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                        @George-K said in Trends:

                                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                        RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                        Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                                        54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

                                        CopperC Offline
                                        CopperC Offline
                                        Copper
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #50

                                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                        54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting

                                        If 2024 doesn't go to the dem, I expect Ms. Harris will overturn the election.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • MikM Away
                                          MikM Away
                                          Mik
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #51

                                          The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.

                                          “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                          George KG 1 Reply Last reply
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