Trends
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You can play with the model here by picking the winners of some of the more contested states. If Budd wins in NC (where he is strongly favored), tge model favors Republicans 59-41. If Budd and Vance both win, it jumps to 67-33. These are races that Rams are projected to win…https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/
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Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL
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@taiwan_girl said in Trends:
Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL
There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.
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Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…
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Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…
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@taiwan_girl said in Trends:
Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL
There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.
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Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…
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Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…
@LuFins-Dad Good points!
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Nailbiter here...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf
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Nailbiter here...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf
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My bet? Senate either stays at 50/50 with Kamala giving Dems majority status or Republicans win at 53 seats.
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.
RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…
The Brad
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.
RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.
RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…
@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.
RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…
Latest Trafalgar has him up by one (and trending).
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…
54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…
54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?
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The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.
"The intelligent man who is proud of his intelligence is like the condemned man who is proud of his large cell." Simone Weil
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The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.
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Should it hit 55-45 in favor of the Republicans, I will be curious to see if it says Dead Heat or Slightly Favored…
