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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Trends

Trends

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  • LuFins DadL Offline
    LuFins DadL Offline
    LuFins Dad
    wrote on last edited by LuFins Dad
    #37

    You can play with the model here by picking the winners of some of the more contested states. If Budd wins in NC (where he is strongly favored), tge model favors Republicans 59-41. If Budd and Vance both win, it jumps to 67-33. These are races that Rams are projected to win…https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

    The Brad

    1 Reply Last reply
    • taiwan_girlT Offline
      taiwan_girlT Offline
      taiwan_girl
      wrote on last edited by
      #38

      Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

      1 Reply Last reply
      • LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote on last edited by
        #39

        @taiwan_girl said in Trends:

        Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

        There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

        1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

        2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

        The Brad

        taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
        • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

          @taiwan_girl said in Trends:

          Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

          There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

          1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

          2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

          taiwan_girlT Offline
          taiwan_girlT Offline
          taiwan_girl
          wrote on last edited by
          #40

          @LuFins-Dad Good points!

          1 Reply Last reply
          • George KG Offline
            George KG Offline
            George K
            wrote on last edited by
            #41

            Screenshot 2022-10-31 at 5.22.51 PM.png

            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • JollyJ Offline
              JollyJ Offline
              Jolly
              wrote on last edited by
              #42

              Nailbiter here...

              https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

              “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

              Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

              George KG 1 Reply Last reply
              • JollyJ Jolly

                Nailbiter here...

                https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

                George KG Offline
                George KG Offline
                George K
                wrote on last edited by
                #43

                @Jolly that poll only had two genders as choice.

                C'mon, man person!

                "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins Dad
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #44

                  My bet? Senate either stays at 50/50 with Kamala giving Dems majority status or Republicans win at 53 seats.

                  The Brad

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • George KG Offline
                    George KG Offline
                    George K
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #45

                    "Trends"

                    Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 9.26.30 AM.png

                    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • George KG George K

                      @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                      New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                      Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                      LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins Dad
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #46

                      @George-K said in Trends:

                      @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                      New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                      Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                      RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                      The Brad

                      George KG JollyJ 2 Replies Last reply
                      • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                        @George-K said in Trends:

                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                        New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                        Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                        RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                        George KG Offline
                        George KG Offline
                        George K
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #47

                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                        RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                        Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                        LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                        • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                          @George-K said in Trends:

                          @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                          New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                          Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                          RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                          JollyJ Offline
                          JollyJ Offline
                          Jolly
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #48

                          @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                          @George-K said in Trends:

                          @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                          New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                          Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                          RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                          Latest Trafalgar has him up by one (and trending).

                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • George KG George K

                            @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                            RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                            Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                            LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins Dad
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #49

                            @George-K said in Trends:

                            @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                            RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                            Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                            54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

                            The Brad

                            CopperC 1 Reply Last reply
                            • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                              @George-K said in Trends:

                              @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                              RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                              Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                              54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

                              CopperC Offline
                              CopperC Offline
                              Copper
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #50

                              @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                              54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting

                              If 2024 doesn't go to the dem, I expect Ms. Harris will overturn the election.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • MikM Offline
                                MikM Offline
                                Mik
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #51

                                The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.

                                “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                                • JollyJ Offline
                                  JollyJ Offline
                                  Jolly
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #52

                                  True dat.

                                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • MikM Mik

                                    The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.

                                    George KG Offline
                                    George KG Offline
                                    George K
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #53

                                    @Mik said in Trends:

                                    someone like Tim Ryan

                                    If Ryan loses, are his aspirations halted?

                                    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • JollyJ Offline
                                      JollyJ Offline
                                      Jolly
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #54

                                      I think they take a huge hit.

                                      “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                      Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • MikM Offline
                                        MikM Offline
                                        Mik
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #55

                                        Yep. He could run to get back in the House, but his presidential ambitions, which I think are very real, will be toast for now.

                                        “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • LuFins DadL Offline
                                          LuFins DadL Offline
                                          LuFins Dad
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #56

                                          E9C0C999-2825-4999-B645-D3E9A8484D31.png

                                          Should it hit 55-45 in favor of the Republicans, I will be curious to see if it says Dead Heat or Slightly Favored…

                                          The Brad

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