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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Trends

Trends

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
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  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

    @taiwan_girl said in Trends:

    Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

    There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

    1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

    2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

    taiwan_girlT Offline
    taiwan_girlT Offline
    taiwan_girl
    wrote on last edited by
    #40

    @LuFins-Dad Good points!

    1 Reply Last reply
    • George KG Offline
      George KG Offline
      George K
      wrote on last edited by
      #41

      Screenshot 2022-10-31 at 5.22.51 PM.png

      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • JollyJ Offline
        JollyJ Offline
        Jolly
        wrote on last edited by
        #42

        Nailbiter here...

        https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

        George KG 1 Reply Last reply
        • JollyJ Jolly

          Nailbiter here...

          https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

          George KG Offline
          George KG Offline
          George K
          wrote on last edited by
          #43

          @Jolly that poll only had two genders as choice.

          C'mon, man person!

          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins Dad
            wrote on last edited by
            #44

            My bet? Senate either stays at 50/50 with Kamala giving Dems majority status or Republicans win at 53 seats.

            The Brad

            1 Reply Last reply
            • George KG Offline
              George KG Offline
              George K
              wrote on last edited by
              #45

              "Trends"

              Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 9.26.30 AM.png

              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • George KG George K

                @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins Dad
                wrote on last edited by
                #46

                @George-K said in Trends:

                @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                The Brad

                George KG JollyJ 2 Replies Last reply
                • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                  @George-K said in Trends:

                  @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                  New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                  Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                  RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                  George KG Offline
                  George KG Offline
                  George K
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #47

                  @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                  RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                  Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                  "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                  The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                  LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                    @George-K said in Trends:

                    @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                    New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                    Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                    RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                    JollyJ Offline
                    JollyJ Offline
                    Jolly
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #48

                    @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                    @George-K said in Trends:

                    @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                    New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                    Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                    RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                    Latest Trafalgar has him up by one (and trending).

                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • George KG George K

                      @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                      RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                      Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                      LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins Dad
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #49

                      @George-K said in Trends:

                      @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                      RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                      Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                      54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

                      The Brad

                      CopperC 1 Reply Last reply
                      • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                        @George-K said in Trends:

                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                        RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                        Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                        54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

                        CopperC Offline
                        CopperC Offline
                        Copper
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #50

                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                        54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting

                        If 2024 doesn't go to the dem, I expect Ms. Harris will overturn the election.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • MikM Offline
                          MikM Offline
                          Mik
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #51

                          The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.

                          “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                          George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                          • JollyJ Offline
                            JollyJ Offline
                            Jolly
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #52

                            True dat.

                            “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                            Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • MikM Mik

                              The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.

                              George KG Offline
                              George KG Offline
                              George K
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #53

                              @Mik said in Trends:

                              someone like Tim Ryan

                              If Ryan loses, are his aspirations halted?

                              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • JollyJ Offline
                                JollyJ Offline
                                Jolly
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #54

                                I think they take a huge hit.

                                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • MikM Offline
                                  MikM Offline
                                  Mik
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #55

                                  Yep. He could run to get back in the House, but his presidential ambitions, which I think are very real, will be toast for now.

                                  “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • LuFins DadL Offline
                                    LuFins DadL Offline
                                    LuFins Dad
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #56

                                    E9C0C999-2825-4999-B645-D3E9A8484D31.png

                                    Should it hit 55-45 in favor of the Republicans, I will be curious to see if it says Dead Heat or Slightly Favored…

                                    The Brad

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • HoraceH Offline
                                      HoraceH Offline
                                      Horace
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #57

                                      I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

                                      Education is extremely important.

                                      LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • HoraceH Horace

                                        I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

                                        LuFins DadL Offline
                                        LuFins DadL Offline
                                        LuFins Dad
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #58

                                        @Horace said in Trends:

                                        I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

                                        Strictly is a bit debatable.

                                        The Brad

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • LuFins DadL Offline
                                          LuFins DadL Offline
                                          LuFins Dad
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #59

                                          B0D232E5-4D28-46BC-AA44-5B473C08185D.png

                                          The Brad

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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