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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Trends

Trends

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  • JollyJ Offline
    JollyJ Offline
    Jolly
    wrote on last edited by
    #22

    If you're putting up money, 62% as of right now...

    https://electionbettingodds.com/

    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

    1 Reply Last reply
    • LuFins DadL Offline
      LuFins DadL Offline
      LuFins Dad
      wrote on last edited by
      #23

      I’m chuckling because there seems to be an editorial difference of opinion at FiveThirtyEight. The number is still at 45-55 as there aren’t any polls coming through today, but the headline has changed three times from “Democrats are *Slightly * favored to win the Senate” to “It’s a Dead Heat for the Senate, then back to “Democrats are Slightly…” and now back to “Dead Heat”…

      My guess is that somebody wants to keep giving the moral support to their side and Silver keeps overriding them and reminding them that the numbers are the numbers…

      The Brad

      1 Reply Last reply
      • LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote on last edited by
        #24

        FFFF7777-6637-4E8B-9EDE-2B744CCFD612.png

        LOL

        The Brad

        1 Reply Last reply
        • LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins Dad
          wrote on last edited by
          #25

          Aaaaaand it’s back to a Dead Heat

          E859643C-459E-4F82-A9DD-93B971EDD646.png

          The Brad

          1 Reply Last reply
          • LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins Dad
            wrote on last edited by
            #26

            46, if anybody is still interested.

            The Brad

            George KG 1 Reply Last reply
            • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

              46, if anybody is still interested.

              George KG Offline
              George KG Offline
              George K
              wrote on last edited by
              #27

              @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

              46, if anybody is still interested.

              Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.

              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

              LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
              • CopperC Offline
                CopperC Offline
                Copper
                wrote on last edited by
                #28

                Pelosi: I ‘cannot believe anybody would vote for’ GOP in midterms

                I know how she feels, in the other direction

                https://nypost.com/2022/10/25/pelosi-says-she-cannot-believe-anyone-would-vote-republican/

                1 Reply Last reply
                • HoraceH Offline
                  HoraceH Offline
                  Horace
                  wrote on last edited by Horace
                  #29

                  Such a sad admission, to not be able to understand other human beings. One would expect the party of compassion to be able to do so easily, as their core competency. But as always, when someone proudly claims to not be able to understand other people, it’s not because they’re stupid or unsympathetic. It’s because they have an excess of virtue.

                  Education is extremely important.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • George KG George K

                    @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                    46, if anybody is still interested.

                    Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.

                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #30

                    @George-K said in Trends:

                    @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                    46, if anybody is still interested.

                    Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.

                    It’s still trending… 48.

                    The Brad

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins Dad
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #31

                      New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory. 54 is a legitimate number for the Rs…

                      The Brad

                      George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                      • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                        New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory. 54 is a legitimate number for the Rs…

                        George KG Offline
                        George KG Offline
                        George K
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #32

                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                        New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                        Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                        LuFins DadL 2 Replies Last reply
                        • HoraceH Offline
                          HoraceH Offline
                          Horace
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #33

                          why are they italicizing those words? meant to remove doubt as to whether they're editorialized? Maybe the italics is meant to convey that they are defined labels for certain probability ranges.

                          Education is extremely important.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • George KG George K

                            @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                            New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                            Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                            LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins Dad
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #34

                            @George-K said in Trends:

                            @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                            New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                            Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                            Trends…

                            https://www.axios.com/2022/10/25/new-hampshire-senate-republicans-bolduc

                            Look at the last 4 polls for NH- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

                            The Brad

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • taiwan_girlT Offline
                              taiwan_girlT Offline
                              taiwan_girl
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #35
                              This post is deleted!
                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • George KG Offline
                                George KG Offline
                                George K
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #36

                                https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

                                Screenshot 2022-10-29 at 6.51.13 AM.png

                                https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

                                Screenshot 2022-10-29 at 6.52.38 AM.png

                                "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • LuFins DadL Offline
                                  LuFins DadL Offline
                                  LuFins Dad
                                  wrote on last edited by LuFins Dad
                                  #37

                                  You can play with the model here by picking the winners of some of the more contested states. If Budd wins in NC (where he is strongly favored), tge model favors Republicans 59-41. If Budd and Vance both win, it jumps to 67-33. These are races that Rams are projected to win…https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

                                  The Brad

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • taiwan_girlT Offline
                                    taiwan_girlT Offline
                                    taiwan_girl
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #38

                                    Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • LuFins DadL Offline
                                      LuFins DadL Offline
                                      LuFins Dad
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #39

                                      @taiwan_girl said in Trends:

                                      Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

                                      There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

                                      1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

                                      2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

                                      The Brad

                                      taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                        @taiwan_girl said in Trends:

                                        Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

                                        There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

                                        1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

                                        2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

                                        taiwan_girlT Offline
                                        taiwan_girlT Offline
                                        taiwan_girl
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #40

                                        @LuFins-Dad Good points!

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • George KG Offline
                                          George KG Offline
                                          George K
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #41

                                          Screenshot 2022-10-31 at 5.22.51 PM.png

                                          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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