Trends

[Jolly]

Nailbiter here...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

[George K]

@Jolly that poll only had two genders as choice.

C'mon, man person!

[LuFins Dad]

My bet? Senate either stays at 50/50 with Kamala giving Dems majority status or Republicans win at 53 seats.

[George K]

"Trends"

[LuFins Dad]

@George-K said in Trends:

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

[George K]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

[Jolly]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

@George-K said in Trends:

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

Latest Trafalgar has him up by one (and trending).

[LuFins Dad]

@George-K said in Trends:

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

[Copper]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting

If 2024 doesn't go to the dem, I expect Ms. Harris will overturn the election.

[Mik]

The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.

[Jolly]

True dat.

[George K]

@Mik said in Trends:

someone like Tim Ryan

If Ryan loses, are his aspirations halted?

[Jolly]

I think they take a huge hit.

[Mik]

Yep. He could run to get back in the House, but his presidential ambitions, which I think are very real, will be toast for now.

[LuFins Dad]

Should it hit 55-45 in favor of the Republicans, I will be curious to see if it says Dead Heat or Slightly Favored…

[Horace]

I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

[LuFins Dad]

@Horace said in Trends:

I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

Strictly is a bit debatable.

[LuFins Dad]

[LuFins Dad]

[LuFins Dad]

The only things I can think of is a rounding difference or editorial disputes…