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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Trends

Trends

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  • CopperC Offline
    CopperC Offline
    Copper
    wrote on last edited by
    #28

    Pelosi: I ‘cannot believe anybody would vote for’ GOP in midterms

    I know how she feels, in the other direction

    https://nypost.com/2022/10/25/pelosi-says-she-cannot-believe-anyone-would-vote-republican/

    1 Reply Last reply
    • HoraceH Offline
      HoraceH Offline
      Horace
      wrote on last edited by Horace
      #29

      Such a sad admission, to not be able to understand other human beings. One would expect the party of compassion to be able to do so easily, as their core competency. But as always, when someone proudly claims to not be able to understand other people, it’s not because they’re stupid or unsympathetic. It’s because they have an excess of virtue.

      Education is extremely important.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • George KG George K

        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

        46, if anybody is still interested.

        Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.

        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote on last edited by
        #30

        @George-K said in Trends:

        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

        46, if anybody is still interested.

        Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.

        It’s still trending… 48.

        The Brad

        1 Reply Last reply
        • LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins Dad
          wrote on last edited by
          #31

          New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory. 54 is a legitimate number for the Rs…

          The Brad

          George KG 1 Reply Last reply
          • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

            New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory. 54 is a legitimate number for the Rs…

            George KG Offline
            George KG Offline
            George K
            wrote on last edited by
            #32

            @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

            New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

            Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

            LuFins DadL 2 Replies Last reply
            • HoraceH Offline
              HoraceH Offline
              Horace
              wrote on last edited by
              #33

              why are they italicizing those words? meant to remove doubt as to whether they're editorialized? Maybe the italics is meant to convey that they are defined labels for certain probability ranges.

              Education is extremely important.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • George KG George K

                @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins Dad
                wrote on last edited by
                #34

                @George-K said in Trends:

                @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                Trends…

                https://www.axios.com/2022/10/25/new-hampshire-senate-republicans-bolduc

                Look at the last 4 polls for NH- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

                The Brad

                1 Reply Last reply
                • taiwan_girlT Offline
                  taiwan_girlT Offline
                  taiwan_girl
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #35
                  This post is deleted!
                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • George KG Offline
                    George KG Offline
                    George K
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #36

                    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

                    Screenshot 2022-10-29 at 6.51.13 AM.png

                    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

                    Screenshot 2022-10-29 at 6.52.38 AM.png

                    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins Dad
                      wrote on last edited by LuFins Dad
                      #37

                      You can play with the model here by picking the winners of some of the more contested states. If Budd wins in NC (where he is strongly favored), tge model favors Republicans 59-41. If Budd and Vance both win, it jumps to 67-33. These are races that Rams are projected to win…https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

                      The Brad

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • taiwan_girlT Offline
                        taiwan_girlT Offline
                        taiwan_girl
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #38

                        Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • LuFins DadL Offline
                          LuFins DadL Offline
                          LuFins Dad
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #39

                          @taiwan_girl said in Trends:

                          Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

                          There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

                          1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

                          2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

                          The Brad

                          taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
                          • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                            @taiwan_girl said in Trends:

                            Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

                            There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

                            1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

                            2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

                            taiwan_girlT Offline
                            taiwan_girlT Offline
                            taiwan_girl
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #40

                            @LuFins-Dad Good points!

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • George KG Offline
                              George KG Offline
                              George K
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #41

                              Screenshot 2022-10-31 at 5.22.51 PM.png

                              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • JollyJ Offline
                                JollyJ Offline
                                Jolly
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #42

                                Nailbiter here...

                                https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

                                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                                • JollyJ Jolly

                                  Nailbiter here...

                                  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

                                  George KG Offline
                                  George KG Offline
                                  George K
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #43

                                  @Jolly that poll only had two genders as choice.

                                  C'mon, man person!

                                  "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                  The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • LuFins DadL Offline
                                    LuFins DadL Offline
                                    LuFins Dad
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #44

                                    My bet? Senate either stays at 50/50 with Kamala giving Dems majority status or Republicans win at 53 seats.

                                    The Brad

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • George KG Offline
                                      George KG Offline
                                      George K
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #45

                                      "Trends"

                                      Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 9.26.30 AM.png

                                      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • George KG George K

                                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                        New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                                        Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                                        LuFins DadL Offline
                                        LuFins DadL Offline
                                        LuFins Dad
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #46

                                        @George-K said in Trends:

                                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                        New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                                        Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                                        RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                        The Brad

                                        George KG JollyJ 2 Replies Last reply
                                        • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                          @George-K said in Trends:

                                          @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                          New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

                                          Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

                                          RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                          George KG Offline
                                          George KG Offline
                                          George K
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #47

                                          @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

                                          RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

                                          Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

                                          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                          LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
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