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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Trends

Trends

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
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  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

    @George-K said in Trends:

    @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

    New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

    Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

    RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

    JollyJ Offline
    JollyJ Offline
    Jolly
    wrote on last edited by
    #48

    @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

    @George-K said in Trends:

    @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

    New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

    Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 10.44.08 AM.png

    RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

    Latest Trafalgar has him up by one (and trending).

    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

    1 Reply Last reply
    • George KG George K

      @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

      RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

      Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

      LuFins DadL Offline
      LuFins DadL Offline
      LuFins Dad
      wrote on last edited by
      #49

      @George-K said in Trends:

      @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

      RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

      Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

      54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

      The Brad

      CopperC 1 Reply Last reply
      • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

        @George-K said in Trends:

        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

        RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

        Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 5.45.06 PM.png

        54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

        CopperC Offline
        CopperC Offline
        Copper
        wrote on last edited by
        #50

        @LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

        54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting

        If 2024 doesn't go to the dem, I expect Ms. Harris will overturn the election.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • MikM Offline
          MikM Offline
          Mik
          wrote on last edited by
          #51

          The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.

          “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

          George KG 1 Reply Last reply
          • JollyJ Offline
            JollyJ Offline
            Jolly
            wrote on last edited by
            #52

            True dat.

            “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

            Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

            1 Reply Last reply
            • MikM Mik

              The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.

              George KG Offline
              George KG Offline
              George K
              wrote on last edited by
              #53

              @Mik said in Trends:

              someone like Tim Ryan

              If Ryan loses, are his aspirations halted?

              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • JollyJ Offline
                JollyJ Offline
                Jolly
                wrote on last edited by
                #54

                I think they take a huge hit.

                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                1 Reply Last reply
                • MikM Offline
                  MikM Offline
                  Mik
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #55

                  Yep. He could run to get back in the House, but his presidential ambitions, which I think are very real, will be toast for now.

                  “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #56

                    E9C0C999-2825-4999-B645-D3E9A8484D31.png

                    Should it hit 55-45 in favor of the Republicans, I will be curious to see if it says Dead Heat or Slightly Favored…

                    The Brad

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • HoraceH Offline
                      HoraceH Offline
                      Horace
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #57

                      I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

                      Education is extremely important.

                      LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                      • HoraceH Horace

                        I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

                        LuFins DadL Offline
                        LuFins DadL Offline
                        LuFins Dad
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #58

                        @Horace said in Trends:

                        I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

                        Strictly is a bit debatable.

                        The Brad

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • LuFins DadL Offline
                          LuFins DadL Offline
                          LuFins Dad
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #59

                          B0D232E5-4D28-46BC-AA44-5B473C08185D.png

                          The Brad

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins Dad
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #60

                            422AC103-784C-4BC4-8FD5-28B374A41D9F.png

                            The Brad

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins Dad
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #61

                              The only things I can think of is a rounding difference or editorial disputes…

                              The Brad

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • HoraceH Offline
                                HoraceH Offline
                                Horace
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #62

                                Rounding would be my guess, but that indicates they are not careful with their code. They need to round before comparing to their defined ranges. Then there is no discrepancy between the number you see and the number used to get the category. I write scientific software and I know these things from painful experience.

                                Education is extremely important.

                                jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                • HoraceH Horace

                                  Rounding would be my guess, but that indicates they are not careful with their code. They need to round before comparing to their defined ranges. Then there is no discrepancy between the number you see and the number used to get the category. I write scientific software and I know these things from painful experience.

                                  jon-nycJ Online
                                  jon-nycJ Online
                                  jon-nyc
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #63

                                  @Horace I’m no expert but I doubt it’s rounding. These are Monte Carlo analyses after all. I’m guessing editorial disputes about what to do about the margin of error.

                                  "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                                  -Cormac McCarthy

                                  HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                    @Horace I’m no expert but I doubt it’s rounding. These are Monte Carlo analyses after all. I’m guessing editorial disputes about what to do about the margin of error.

                                    HoraceH Offline
                                    HoraceH Offline
                                    Horace
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #64

                                    @jon-nyc said in Trends:

                                    @Horace I’m no expert but I doubt it’s rounding. These are Monte Carlo analyses after all. I’m guessing editorial disputes about what to do about the margin of error.

                                    They have a fresh discussion every time about what 54.95% means? The italics seem to indicate a formalized category. I looked on the website but didn’t find definitions for the italicized terms.

                                    Education is extremely important.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • AxtremusA Away
                                      AxtremusA Away
                                      Axtremus
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #65

                                      If you folks are talking about the FiveThirtyEight projections and terminology, note that they also have three different “models”, {Lite, Classic, Deluxe}, each with increasingly more human/expert “adjustments” added to polling data. Lots of potential to complicate their definitions for terms like “lean,” “toss up,” and “dead heat.”

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • LuFins DadL Offline
                                        LuFins DadL Offline
                                        LuFins Dad
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #66

                                        BFDD1BE6-3E73-442A-BAC4-46A19722C889.png

                                        It has to be a rounding thing…

                                        The Brad

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • LuFins DadL Offline
                                          LuFins DadL Offline
                                          LuFins Dad
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #67

                                          Uh oh!

                                          82D24BE5-3A37-4A2E-A406-F9D0B8C4EF25.png

                                          The Brad

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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