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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Trends

Trends

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
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  • HoraceH Horace

    I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

    LuFins DadL Offline
    LuFins DadL Offline
    LuFins Dad
    wrote on last edited by
    #58

    @Horace said in Trends:

    I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

    Strictly is a bit debatable.

    The Brad

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    • LuFins DadL Offline
      LuFins DadL Offline
      LuFins Dad
      wrote on last edited by
      #59

      B0D232E5-4D28-46BC-AA44-5B473C08185D.png

      The Brad

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      • LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote on last edited by
        #60

        422AC103-784C-4BC4-8FD5-28B374A41D9F.png

        The Brad

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        • LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins Dad
          wrote on last edited by
          #61

          The only things I can think of is a rounding difference or editorial disputes…

          The Brad

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          • HoraceH Offline
            HoraceH Offline
            Horace
            wrote on last edited by
            #62

            Rounding would be my guess, but that indicates they are not careful with their code. They need to round before comparing to their defined ranges. Then there is no discrepancy between the number you see and the number used to get the category. I write scientific software and I know these things from painful experience.

            Education is extremely important.

            jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
            • HoraceH Horace

              Rounding would be my guess, but that indicates they are not careful with their code. They need to round before comparing to their defined ranges. Then there is no discrepancy between the number you see and the number used to get the category. I write scientific software and I know these things from painful experience.

              jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nyc
              wrote on last edited by
              #63

              @Horace I’m no expert but I doubt it’s rounding. These are Monte Carlo analyses after all. I’m guessing editorial disputes about what to do about the margin of error.

              "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
              -Cormac McCarthy

              HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                @Horace I’m no expert but I doubt it’s rounding. These are Monte Carlo analyses after all. I’m guessing editorial disputes about what to do about the margin of error.

                HoraceH Offline
                HoraceH Offline
                Horace
                wrote on last edited by
                #64

                @jon-nyc said in Trends:

                @Horace I’m no expert but I doubt it’s rounding. These are Monte Carlo analyses after all. I’m guessing editorial disputes about what to do about the margin of error.

                They have a fresh discussion every time about what 54.95% means? The italics seem to indicate a formalized category. I looked on the website but didn’t find definitions for the italicized terms.

                Education is extremely important.

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                • AxtremusA Offline
                  AxtremusA Offline
                  Axtremus
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #65

                  If you folks are talking about the FiveThirtyEight projections and terminology, note that they also have three different “models”, {Lite, Classic, Deluxe}, each with increasingly more human/expert “adjustments” added to polling data. Lots of potential to complicate their definitions for terms like “lean,” “toss up,” and “dead heat.”

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                  • LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #66

                    BFDD1BE6-3E73-442A-BAC4-46A19722C889.png

                    It has to be a rounding thing…

                    The Brad

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                    • LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins Dad
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #67

                      Uh oh!

                      82D24BE5-3A37-4A2E-A406-F9D0B8C4EF25.png

                      The Brad

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • LuFins DadL Offline
                        LuFins DadL Offline
                        LuFins Dad
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #68

                        Speaking of trends, O’Dea in Colorado has just pulled into toss-up territory on RCP… https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/co/colorado_senate_odea_vs_bennet-7773.html

                        Bennet was a double digit favorite a few weeks ago…

                        The Brad

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                        • George KG Offline
                          George KG Offline
                          George K
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #69

                          image.jpeg

                          Wow, they're calling NH, AZ and Nevada for the GOP

                          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

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                          • George KG Offline
                            George KG Offline
                            George K
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #70

                            Screenshot 2022-11-08 at 7.31.16 AM.png

                            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                            LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                            • George KG George K

                              Screenshot 2022-11-08 at 7.31.16 AM.png

                              LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins Dad
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #71

                              @George-K said in Trends:

                              Screenshot 2022-11-08 at 7.31.16 AM.png

                              That’s their final, too.

                              The Brad

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