Trends

[George K]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

[Jolly]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

@George-K said in Trends:

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

Latest Trafalgar has him up by one (and trending).

[LuFins Dad]

@George-K said in Trends:

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…

54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?

[Copper]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting

If 2024 doesn't go to the dem, I expect Ms. Harris will overturn the election.

[Mik]

The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.

[Jolly]

True dat.

[George K]

@Mik said in Trends:

someone like Tim Ryan

If Ryan loses, are his aspirations halted?

[Jolly]

I think they take a huge hit.

[Mik]

Yep. He could run to get back in the House, but his presidential ambitions, which I think are very real, will be toast for now.

[LuFins Dad]

Should it hit 55-45 in favor of the Republicans, I will be curious to see if it says Dead Heat or Slightly Favored…

[Horace]

I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

[LuFins Dad]

@Horace said in Trends:

I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

Strictly is a bit debatable.

[LuFins Dad]

[LuFins Dad]

[LuFins Dad]

The only things I can think of is a rounding difference or editorial disputes…

[Horace]

Rounding would be my guess, but that indicates they are not careful with their code. They need to round before comparing to their defined ranges. Then there is no discrepancy between the number you see and the number used to get the category. I write scientific software and I know these things from painful experience.

[jon-nyc]

@Horace I’m no expert but I doubt it’s rounding. These are Monte Carlo analyses after all. I’m guessing editorial disputes about what to do about the margin of error.

[Horace]

@jon-nyc said in Trends:

@Horace I’m no expert but I doubt it’s rounding. These are Monte Carlo analyses after all. I’m guessing editorial disputes about what to do about the margin of error.

They have a fresh discussion every time about what 54.95% means? The italics seem to indicate a formalized category. I looked on the website but didn’t find definitions for the italicized terms.

[Axtremus]

If you folks are talking about the FiveThirtyEight projections and terminology, note that they also have three different “models”, {Lite, Classic, Deluxe}, each with increasingly more human/expert “adjustments” added to polling data. Lots of potential to complicate their definitions for terms like “lean,” “toss up,” and “dead heat.”

[LuFins Dad]

It has to be a rounding thing…