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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Trends

Trends

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
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  • JollyJ Offline
    JollyJ Offline
    Jolly
    wrote on last edited by
    #54

    I think they take a huge hit.

    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

    1 Reply Last reply
    • MikM Away
      MikM Away
      Mik
      wrote on last edited by
      #55

      Yep. He could run to get back in the House, but his presidential ambitions, which I think are very real, will be toast for now.

      “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

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      • LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote on last edited by
        #56

        E9C0C999-2825-4999-B645-D3E9A8484D31.png

        Should it hit 55-45 in favor of the Republicans, I will be curious to see if it says Dead Heat or Slightly Favored…

        The Brad

        1 Reply Last reply
        • HoraceH Offline
          HoraceH Offline
          Horace
          wrote on last edited by
          #57

          I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

          Education is extremely important.

          LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
          • HoraceH Horace

            I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

            LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins Dad
            wrote on last edited by
            #58

            @Horace said in Trends:

            I'm assuming the italics indicate the word is strictly defined as a certain range of percentages.

            Strictly is a bit debatable.

            The Brad

            1 Reply Last reply
            • LuFins DadL Offline
              LuFins DadL Offline
              LuFins Dad
              wrote on last edited by
              #59

              B0D232E5-4D28-46BC-AA44-5B473C08185D.png

              The Brad

              1 Reply Last reply
              • LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins Dad
                wrote on last edited by
                #60

                422AC103-784C-4BC4-8FD5-28B374A41D9F.png

                The Brad

                1 Reply Last reply
                • LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins Dad
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #61

                  The only things I can think of is a rounding difference or editorial disputes…

                  The Brad

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • HoraceH Offline
                    HoraceH Offline
                    Horace
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #62

                    Rounding would be my guess, but that indicates they are not careful with their code. They need to round before comparing to their defined ranges. Then there is no discrepancy between the number you see and the number used to get the category. I write scientific software and I know these things from painful experience.

                    Education is extremely important.

                    jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                    • HoraceH Horace

                      Rounding would be my guess, but that indicates they are not careful with their code. They need to round before comparing to their defined ranges. Then there is no discrepancy between the number you see and the number used to get the category. I write scientific software and I know these things from painful experience.

                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #63

                      @Horace I’m no expert but I doubt it’s rounding. These are Monte Carlo analyses after all. I’m guessing editorial disputes about what to do about the margin of error.

                      "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                      -Cormac McCarthy

                      HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                        @Horace I’m no expert but I doubt it’s rounding. These are Monte Carlo analyses after all. I’m guessing editorial disputes about what to do about the margin of error.

                        HoraceH Offline
                        HoraceH Offline
                        Horace
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #64

                        @jon-nyc said in Trends:

                        @Horace I’m no expert but I doubt it’s rounding. These are Monte Carlo analyses after all. I’m guessing editorial disputes about what to do about the margin of error.

                        They have a fresh discussion every time about what 54.95% means? The italics seem to indicate a formalized category. I looked on the website but didn’t find definitions for the italicized terms.

                        Education is extremely important.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • AxtremusA Away
                          AxtremusA Away
                          Axtremus
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #65

                          If you folks are talking about the FiveThirtyEight projections and terminology, note that they also have three different “models”, {Lite, Classic, Deluxe}, each with increasingly more human/expert “adjustments” added to polling data. Lots of potential to complicate their definitions for terms like “lean,” “toss up,” and “dead heat.”

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins Dad
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #66

                            BFDD1BE6-3E73-442A-BAC4-46A19722C889.png

                            It has to be a rounding thing…

                            The Brad

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins Dad
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #67

                              Uh oh!

                              82D24BE5-3A37-4A2E-A406-F9D0B8C4EF25.png

                              The Brad

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • LuFins DadL Offline
                                LuFins DadL Offline
                                LuFins Dad
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #68

                                Speaking of trends, O’Dea in Colorado has just pulled into toss-up territory on RCP… https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/co/colorado_senate_odea_vs_bennet-7773.html

                                Bennet was a double digit favorite a few weeks ago…

                                The Brad

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • George KG Offline
                                  George KG Offline
                                  George K
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #69

                                  image.jpeg

                                  Wow, they're calling NH, AZ and Nevada for the GOP

                                  "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                  The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • George KG Offline
                                    George KG Offline
                                    George K
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #70

                                    Screenshot 2022-11-08 at 7.31.16 AM.png

                                    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                    LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • George KG George K

                                      Screenshot 2022-11-08 at 7.31.16 AM.png

                                      LuFins DadL Offline
                                      LuFins DadL Offline
                                      LuFins Dad
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #71

                                      @George-K said in Trends:

                                      Screenshot 2022-11-08 at 7.31.16 AM.png

                                      That’s their final, too.

                                      The Brad

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