@Jolly I agree with you. I’m thinking there might be a rump Ukraine emerging from this made up of Western Ukraine -areas that were part of Poland and Romania until 1939 and Hapsburg territories before WWI. It would border the Russian held Ukraine to the east and Belarus to the north thus in effect creating a cordon sanitaire separating Russia from the west. The wild card in the scenario though is in the north along the borders of the NATO Baltic States and Finland.

@Renauda said: I wish I could share in your optimism about the lack of support in Russia. I do not believe for a second that the vast majority of the Russian public has not bought into Putin’s propaganda narrative blaming all of this on “Ukrainian Nazis”and NATO. ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ FWIW, these excerpts from PBS: Putin’s public approval soared as Russia prepared to attack Ukraine. History shows it’s unlikely to last. Historical data shows that diversionary wars — fighting abroad to draw attention away from problems at home — have rarely worked for Putin. Daring and expensive military adventures will, over time, decrease the Kremlin’s popularity, history also tells us. As a scholar of Russia and public opinion, I know that war ultimately requires an enormous amount of public goodwill and support for a political leader — far more than a brief spike in popularity can ensure. Russia’s military buildup along the Ukrainian border over the last few months coincides with a steady rise in Putin’s popularity. Approximately 69% of Russians now approve of Putin, compared to the 61% who approved of him in August 2021, according to Russian polling agency the Levada Center. And 29% of Russians disapprove of Putin, down from 37% in August 2021. The polling group is the leading independent sociological research organization in Russia and is widely respected by many scholars, including myself. Support for Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and his cabinet also increased moderately in the same time period. The Russian public largely believes that the Kremlin is defending Russia by standing up to the West. <snip> About 38% of Russians did not consider war with Ukraine a real possibility as of December 2021, according to Levada Center polling. Another 15% completely ruled out the possibility of armed conflict. Approximately 83% of Russians report positive views on Ukrainians. And 51% of Russians say that Russia and Ukraine should be independent, yet friendly, countries. The popular narrative is that Russia is a besieged fortress, constantly fending off Western attacks. Half of Russians blame the current crisis on the U.S. and NATO, while 16% think Ukraine is the aggressor. Just 4% believe Russia is responsible. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putins-public-approval-soared-as-russia-prepared-to-attack-ukraine-history-shows-its-unlikely-to-last

What about a No-Fly Zone in Ukraine? Or maybe a modern day version of the AVG, featuring an international group of pilots? I could imagine pilots being contracted to provide air support and other Soldier of Fortune types showing up to "beat those commies" into submission. The US and allies could covertly support them. Of course, Putin would see that as license for indiscretions to sabotage NATO capabilities. Again, I think Putin feels he has a great advantage over his adversaries once this moves further into asymmetric warfare as he's already been hit pretty hard and may feel he has less to lose moving forward.

@Jolly said in MAPA: @Jolly said in MAPA: Make America Poor Again. [image: 51K8Lvbb0tL.__AC_SY300_SX300_QL70_FMwebp_.jpg] And my initial point is that Biden will be given the blame for record inflation. Most Americans in the working sector do not remember the miasma of the Carter presidency. They are in for a rude shock and Mr. Biden is going to get torched. My daughter is married to a union steward. God Bless him, he's quit defending Biden at all. Having to buy a car, put gas in it and buy groceries will do that to you. Speaking of things one seldom hears, I don't hear much rah-rah over Biden at all. Through Afghanistan and some other COVID nonsense, Biden himself paved the way for liberals to ignore him without their losing face with the Right People.

@Doctor-Phibes said in 17,000 ATGMs in a week?: Irest of the world is willing to keep on isolating Russia, or whether they'll cave if things get more difficult. What is more important a the people of Ukraine or the price of my gasoline? That's an easy question.

@Doctor-Phibes said in 5,000,000: @Aqua-Letifer said in 5,000,000: saying Britain was a generous country but Yeah, let's take the opportunity to make this about how great the British are, meanwhile doing sweet FA to help. Send The Resident an email. I'm sure he'll get right on it.

My plan is to wait until most of the nutters with guns wipe each other out, then I'll walk in and disarm them with my cheery British accent and self-deprecating humour, and snaffle all the goodies while they're busy polishing their weapons and arguing about who's in charge. Pretty much what the Brits have always done, IOW.

In other news, American diplomats are in talks in Venezuela, offering to lift sanctions for oil... My, how things have changed.

@Jolly said in Death by chloroform: That's what she said... lol

Day Eight of the Russian Column Held Hostage (by the usual Russian incompetence) I have posted on twitter about the Russian Army columns North of Kyiv decaying into immobile blobs due to the Rasputitsa, poorly maintained Chinese truck tires and shear “follow the plan” Russian incompetence. The head and first dozen or so kilometers of the southernmost column north of Kiev have been stuck there for EIGHT DAYS. The Russians have since rammed more and more vehicles into this monster traffic jam (idiotically “following the plan” Soviet-style) so the whole thing is now 65-70 kilometers long (almost 40 miles). And, because the trucks can’t go off-road due to the Rasputitsa mud and tire problems, they’re stuck on the roads and the roads’ shoulders three vehicles wide for the whole @40 miles. That means fuel and resupply trucks can’t move on or off road to deliver anything to anybody. So all the columns’ heads are now out of fuel and battery power. They can’t move north, south or sideways, and everything behind them is stuck because of the mud, and rapidly running out of fuel and vehicle battery charge too (assuming they haven’t already). Nor can any of those columns defend themselves because they’re too densely packed. They’re just targets waiting for the Ukrainians to destroy them. Only the Ukrainians had something better to do. They opened the floodgates of reservoirs around those columns to flood them and turn the surrounding areas into impassable quagmires for months – probably until July or August. (See photo below) Probably several thousand Russian vehicles in those columns will be irrecoverable losses. Hundreds of Russian soldiers might have drowned. This was not just a debacle, but an EPIC one. About 1/5th of the Russian force in Ukraine is now flooded or trapped, and are definitely out of the war for good. Much more interesting stuff at the link.

5% would be more like it. OTOH, why do I have a smidgen of trepidation, contemplating most European nations armed to the teeth?

@Jolly said in Kuwait vs Ukraine: To compare Russia with Iraq is laughable. He kind of just ignored the Russian nuclear arsenal in one passing sentence. Noticed that, did you? LOL.

@Renauda said in Fiona Hill on Russia: Fiona Hill never disappoints. Thanks for posting. Great hear from folks who know where of they speak. She sure does.

Answer to #3 is no, you don’t pay property taxes on your own assessment of value, the city assessed it for you.

No comment as he didn’t give specifics, but he is concerned. Get drunk when you can and Jon put out some very sage advice.

@George-K said in Genius: there are good people on both sides Agreed, and it is good to always keep this in mind. Political affiliation doesn't say much about whether one is a good person. (With the obvious exception of Democrats, who are all bad.)