https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2026-Unclassified-Report.pdf
(I think this version is readable by everyone.)
Page 22 is in regards to Taiwan and China. Bottom line, they do not think that China will do anything in the next couple of years. (Of course, this was written prior to everything happening in the Middle East.)
In 2026, Beijing probably will continue seeking to set the conditions for eventual unification with Taiwan short of conflict. China, despite its threat to use force to compel unification if necessary and to counter what it sees as a U.S. attempt to use Taiwan to undermine China’s rise, prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) also continues to develop military plans and capabilities for attempting to achieve unification using military force if directed to do so.
The PLA probably is making steady but uneven progress on capabilities that it would use in any attempt to seize Taiwan and deter—and, if necessary, defeat—U.S. military intervention. At times, it has increased the scope, size, and pace of operations around Taiwan.
• The IC assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification. However, China publicly insists that unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of “national rejuvenation” by 2049—the 100th year anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Beijing almost certainly will consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, including PLA readiness, the actions and politics of
Taiwan, and whether or not the U.S. will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.
• Chinese officials recognize that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be extremely challenging and carry a high risk of failure, especially in the event of U.S. intervention.
A conflict between China and Taiwan may disrupt U.S. access to trade and semiconductor technology critical to the global economy. If the U.S. were to intervene, it probably would face significant but recoverable disruptions to its transportation sector from Chinese cyber attacks. Even without Washington’s involvement, U.S. and global economic and security interests would face significant and costly consequences, with tech supply chains disrupted and investor fear across markets. In addition, a protracted war with the U.S. risks unprecedented economic costs to the U.S., Chinese, and global economies.
