Trends
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New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory. 54 is a legitimate number for the Rs…
wrote on 28 Oct 2022, 15:44 last edited by -
wrote on 28 Oct 2022, 15:46 last edited by
why are they italicizing those words? meant to remove doubt as to whether they're editorialized? Maybe the italics is meant to convey that they are defined labels for certain probability ranges.
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wrote on 28 Oct 2022, 17:03 last edited by
@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.
Trends…
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/25/new-hampshire-senate-republicans-bolduc
Look at the last 4 polls for NH- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
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wrote on 29 Oct 2022, 04:58 last edited byThis post is deleted!
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wrote on 30 Oct 2022, 00:47 last edited by LuFins Dad
You can play with the model here by picking the winners of some of the more contested states. If Budd wins in NC (where he is strongly favored), tge model favors Republicans 59-41. If Budd and Vance both win, it jumps to 67-33. These are races that Rams are projected to win…https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/
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wrote on 30 Oct 2022, 04:03 last edited by
Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL
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wrote on 30 Oct 2022, 04:35 last edited by
@taiwan_girl said in Trends:
Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL
There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.
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Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…
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Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…
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@taiwan_girl said in Trends:
Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL
There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.
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Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…
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Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…
wrote on 30 Oct 2022, 04:45 last edited by@LuFins-Dad Good points!
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wrote on 31 Oct 2022, 22:23 last edited by
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wrote on 31 Oct 2022, 23:04 last edited by
Nailbiter here...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf
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Nailbiter here...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf
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wrote on 1 Nov 2022, 14:09 last edited by
My bet? Senate either stays at 50/50 with Kamala giving Dems majority status or Republicans win at 53 seats.
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wrote on 1 Nov 2022, 14:27 last edited by
"Trends"
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wrote on 1 Nov 2022, 22:34 last edited by
@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.
RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.
RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…
wrote on 1 Nov 2022, 22:45 last edited by -
@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.
RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…
wrote on 1 Nov 2022, 22:58 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.
RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…
Latest Trafalgar has him up by one (and trending).
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wrote on 1 Nov 2022, 23:02 last edited by
@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…
54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
RCP just moved NH into a Republican pickup…
54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting… Could the Republicans pickup 6 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan?
wrote on 2 Nov 2022, 01:48 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
54 seats makes 2024 look very interesting
If 2024 doesn't go to the dem, I expect Ms. Harris will overturn the election.
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wrote on 2 Nov 2022, 02:21 last edited by
The Dems will drop Harris like a hot rock. She was a loser to start with. No, 2024 might well be someone like Tim Ryan who has wanted leadership forever. It won’t be anyone in the Biden orbit.
