Trends

[LuFins Dad]

LOL

[LuFins Dad]

Aaaaaand it’s back to a Dead Heat

[LuFins Dad]

46, if anybody is still interested.

[George K]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

46, if anybody is still interested.

Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.

[Copper]

Pelosi: I ‘cannot believe anybody would vote for’ GOP in midterms

I know how she feels, in the other direction

https://nypost.com/2022/10/25/pelosi-says-she-cannot-believe-anyone-would-vote-republican/

[Horace]

Such a sad admission, to not be able to understand other human beings. One would expect the party of compassion to be able to do so easily, as their core competency. But as always, when someone proudly claims to not be able to understand other people, it’s not because they’re stupid or unsympathetic. It’s because they have an excess of virtue.

[LuFins Dad]

@George-K said in Trends:

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

46, if anybody is still interested.

Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.

It’s still trending… 48.

[LuFins Dad]

New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory. 54 is a legitimate number for the Rs…

[George K]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

[Horace]

why are they italicizing those words? meant to remove doubt as to whether they're editorialized? Maybe the italics is meant to convey that they are defined labels for certain probability ranges.

[LuFins Dad]

@George-K said in Trends:

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

Trends…

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/25/new-hampshire-senate-republicans-bolduc

Look at the last 4 polls for NH- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[taiwan_girl]

This post is deleted!

[George K]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

[LuFins Dad]

You can play with the model here by picking the winners of some of the more contested states. If Budd wins in NC (where he is strongly favored), tge model favors Republicans 59-41. If Budd and Vance both win, it jumps to 67-33. These are races that Rams are projected to win…https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

[taiwan_girl]

Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

[LuFins Dad]

@taiwan_girl said in Trends:

Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL

There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.

1. Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…

2. Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…

[taiwan_girl]

@LuFins-Dad Good points!

[George K]

[Jolly]

Nailbiter here...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf

[George K]

@Jolly that poll only had two genders as choice.

C'mon, man person!