The Ukraine war thread

Wim

@xenon Pretty obvious: not at all.

Mik

You have to go with the assumption of deceit, then try from there to figure out what is real.

jon-nyc

Renauda

“There’s no place [in the U.S. plans] for our main demand today, which is resolving problems related to the root causes of this conflict,” he said.

Russian officials have repeatedly invoked the term “root causes,” which Putin said last June include Ukraine withdrawing from the partially Ukrainian regions and abandoning its NATO bid.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/04/01/russia-cannot-accept-us-ceasefire-proposal-in-ukraine-deputy-fm-says-a88564

Mik

Tease the ceasefire enough and people will come to want it more and be willing to surrender more to get it.

Renauda

I doubt very much the Kremlin will be willing to surrender any of its stated terms.

Mik

Exactly. We've added a carrot when we should have stuck with the stick. But the carrot is tempting the west, not Russia.

Renauda

The carrot is of the Trump Administration's own making and imagination. It holds little, if any, credibility outside of a few minds in Washington and Budapest. The Kremlin however immensely enjoys the black humour of the tragicomedy theatre it offers.

Renauda

While Russia is exempted from the current round of Trump tariffs, its stock market is crashing like every other bourse. The drop in oil prices must really hurt.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/04/05/russian-markets-reel-from-trump-tariffs-oil-price-collapse-a88618

Despite all, don’t expect the Kremlin to become more accommodating or any less bellicose in pursuing its war against Ukraine.

Mik

He does seem rather committed.

Jolly

The good news is that Germany looks like they may actually be getting serious about their defense forces.

Putin like to ponder on the glory days of the Soviet Union. Doubt it would come anywhere near that, but I wonder if he wishes to ponder on Operation Unthinkable?