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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. It’s starting

It’s starting

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
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  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

    @89th said in It’s starting:

    Yup, she's the NotDon-NotJoe candidate.

    Ugh there is a better nickname in there but I'm too tired

    The “I promise not to turn 80 in the White House” candidate.

    A policy position I can support.

    George KG Offline
    George KG Offline
    George K
    wrote on last edited by
    #114

    @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

    The “I promise not to turn 80 in the White House” candidate.

    A policy position I can support...

    ...now.

    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • taiwan_girlT Offline
      taiwan_girlT Offline
      taiwan_girl
      wrote on last edited by
      #115

      Should people be voting for policy, or the persons personality? (and I know that it is impossible to separate I guess)

      We had this discussion earlier about it Presdient Trump was not running and there was another candidate (I think we spoke of Gov. DeSantis) who had the exact same policy positions, would he be doing as well? I think that the agreement was that probably not.

      I read a quote from a CEO who said something like, "The only decisions I should be making are those that ONLY I can make". I understand it to mean that he did not want to make low level, medium level or even high level decisions. He has faith in his EVP's, SVP's, etc. to make those. Only the super high level decisions are the ones he should be involved with.

      I think that presidents often get too involved in decisions that others can (and probably should) make.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nyc
        wrote on last edited by
        #116

        IMG_0237.png

        Only non-witches get due process.

        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
        1 Reply Last reply
        • LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins Dad
          wrote on last edited by
          #117

          It’s going to look like a DNA strand over the next monthZ

          The Brad

          1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by
            #118

            I agree. Also, as Nate points out, the gap is easy to misinterpret. These are probabilities of EC victories, not gaps in polling. 55-45 is closer than it seems. Neck and neck almost.

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ Offline
              jon-nycJ Offline
              jon-nyc
              wrote on last edited by
              #119

              IMG_0275.jpeg

              Only non-witches get due process.

              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
              LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
              • LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins Dad
                wrote on last edited by
                #120

                @jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?

                The Brad

                jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                  IMG_0275.jpeg

                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins Dad
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #121

                  @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                  IMG_0275.jpeg

                  It’s not going to be a complete helix. My guess is you’ll see the each turn get smaller.

                  The Brad

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                    @jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?

                    jon-nycJ Offline
                    jon-nycJ Offline
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #122

                    @LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

                    @jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?

                    0.2%

                    IMG_0277.jpeg

                    Only non-witches get due process.

                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins Dad
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #123

                      That’s dropped since Biden dropped out. I seem to recall it being as high as 4-5%

                      The Brad

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ Offline
                        jon-nycJ Offline
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #124

                        The fat man’s fall continues.

                        IMG_0287.png

                        Only non-witches get due process.

                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ Offline
                          jon-nycJ Offline
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #125

                          EC tie probability up to 0.3.

                          IMG_0288.jpeg

                          Only non-witches get due process.

                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • jon-nycJ Offline
                            jon-nycJ Offline
                            jon-nyc
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #126

                            Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.

                            Harris’ is +0.3

                            Only non-witches get due process.

                            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                            JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                            • LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins Dad
                              wrote on last edited by LuFins Dad
                              #127

                              As you pointed out yourself, 53-46) in probability is a tossup.

                              The Brad

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • JollyJ Offline
                                JollyJ Offline
                                Jolly
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #128

                                Give the Word Salad Queen time.

                                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                  Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                  Aqua Letifer
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #129

                                  I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day. It's not like anyone in the country whose financial future is tied to a particular candidate actually likes any of these people.

                                  Please love yourself.

                                  taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                    Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.

                                    Harris’ is +0.3

                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    Jolly
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #130

                                    @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                                    Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.

                                    Harris’ is +0.3

                                    She's had 90%+ favorable publicity from every major broadcast media and every cable media, with the exception of FOX, for her entire candidacy. Trump has been 95% negative.

                                    She ought to be better than than that.

                                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • Aqua LetiferA Aqua Letifer

                                      I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day. It's not like anyone in the country whose financial future is tied to a particular candidate actually likes any of these people.

                                      taiwan_girlT Offline
                                      taiwan_girlT Offline
                                      taiwan_girl
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #131

                                      @Aqua-Letifer said in It’s starting:

                                      I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day.

                                      Aqua says the truth.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • LuFins DadL Offline
                                        LuFins DadL Offline
                                        LuFins Dad
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #132

                                        Leveled off, some signs it will start contracting again over the next few days…alt text

                                        The Brad

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • LuFins DadL Offline
                                          LuFins DadL Offline
                                          LuFins Dad
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #133

                                          alt text

                                          The Brad

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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