It’s starting
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So based on past poll performances, Trump’s up +3
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It's not a poll, nor a simple average. it's Nate Silver's model. And he updates it every election season with lessons from the previous election.
DON’T let them eat cake.
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@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
It's not a poll, nor a simple average. it's Nate Silver's model. And he updates it every election season with lessons from the previous election.
Yeah, yeah. I give Nate a lot of credit for giving Trump a 28% chance in 2016. His model did a lot worse in 2020. He had Trump at 10%, but I think we can all agree that the swing states were far tighter than the model thought likely. I tend to think a 50/50 split still leans Trump’s way.
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Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
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Should people be voting for policy, or the persons personality? (and I know that it is impossible to separate I guess)
We had this discussion earlier about it Presdient Trump was not running and there was another candidate (I think we spoke of Gov. DeSantis) who had the exact same policy positions, would he be doing as well? I think that the agreement was that probably not.
I read a quote from a CEO who said something like, "The only decisions I should be making are those that ONLY I can make". I understand it to mean that he did not want to make low level, medium level or even high level decisions. He has faith in his EVP's, SVP's, etc. to make those. Only the super high level decisions are the ones he should be involved with.
I think that presidents often get too involved in decisions that others can (and probably should) make.
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It’s going to look like a DNA strand over the next monthZ
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I agree. Also, as Nate points out, the gap is easy to misinterpret. These are probabilities of EC victories, not gaps in polling. 55-45 is closer than it seems. Neck and neck almost.
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@jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?
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@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
It’s not going to be a complete helix. My guess is you’ll see the each turn get smaller.
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@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
@jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?
0.2%
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That’s dropped since Biden dropped out. I seem to recall it being as high as 4-5%
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The fat man’s fall continues.
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EC tie probability up to 0.3.
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Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.
Harris’ is +0.3
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As you pointed out yourself, 53-46) in probability is a tossup.
