It’s starting

[Horace]

It's less to do with the opposition and more to do with her. They don't want her making any blunders. They are checking and calling all the bets and we'll see how the hands compare in November.

[taiwan_girl]

Agree with 89 and Horace. When the Democrats best campaigner is President Trump, why change a strategy that works?

And if the polling trends more in favor of VP Harris, that "forces" President Trump to talk more, which, based on past history, will result in more stupid verbal talking.

He is his own worst enemy.

[jon-nyc]

A populist might say "good for her". Speak directly to the people where they're at - social media. Letting elite journalists mediate your messaging to voters is so 2005.

[Horace]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

A populist might say "good for her". Speak directly to the people where they're at - social media. Letting elite journalists mediate your messaging to voters is so 2005.

Kamala is speaking directly via social media? What's she saying? Got links?

[jon-nyc]

Yeah they have quite a social media presence. I see them on X and FB, paid ads. I don't follow campaigns.

[LuFins Dad]

As a bonus, she can enjoy another box of wine!

[Horace]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

Yeah they have quite a social media presence. I see them on X and FB, paid ads. I don't follow campaigns.

Oh, paid online canvassing ads. I thought you meant Kamala communicating directly, not her marketing team.

[jon-nyc]

She is usually speaking on the ads. Yeah scripted. Just like press interview responses.

[Horace]

She is the least defined candidate ever, and her team is content to keep it that way.

[89th]

Yup, she's the NotDon-NotJoe candidate.

Ugh there is a better nickname in there but I'm too tired

[Horace]

'I Was Born Into A Middle Class Family,' Explains Wife When Husband Asks Why The Car Is On Fire

https://babylonbee.com/news/i-was-born-into-a-middle-class-family-explains-wife-when-husband-asks-why-the-car-is-on-fire?utm_source=The Babylon Bee Newsletter&utm_medium=email

[jon-nyc]

@89th said in It’s starting:

Yup, she's the NotDon-NotJoe candidate.

Ugh there is a better nickname in there but I'm too tired

The “I promise not to turn 80 in the White House” candidate.

A policy position I can support.

[Jolly]

Actually, she's a media creation. Her campaign is fueled by Big Money and she is buying an enormous amount of advertising. It's crafted, polished and ubiquitous on the airwaves.

She's running Biden's Basement Strategy and catering to the LIV, particularly the gibmedats and the college educated suburban women.

I've watched Trump do a townhall, a one-hour Hannity interview and the Gutfeld! show. In all of them, he's still Trump, but he churns out ideas, both good and bad. And he makes observations...Last night he talked about the Evangelical vote and the 2nd Amendment vote, and why he's puzzled by lower voter turnout in those groups than expected.

So, while Trump does come out with some goofy stuff, that brain is spinning and thinking pretty well for a guy his age, especially as juxtaposed with Harris.

[jon-nyc]

By what margin did Trump win the debate again? 92 to 7 he said?

[jon-nyc]

When does he start asking for another debate?

[LuFins Dad]

So based on past poll performances, Trump’s up +3

[jon-nyc]

It's not a poll, nor a simple average. it's Nate Silver's model. And he updates it every election season with lessons from the previous election.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

It's not a poll, nor a simple average. it's Nate Silver's model. And he updates it every election season with lessons from the previous election.

Yeah, yeah. I give Nate a lot of credit for giving Trump a 28% chance in 2016. His model did a lot worse in 2020. He had Trump at 10%, but I think we can all agree that the swing states were far tighter than the model thought likely. I tend to think a 50/50 split still leans Trump’s way.

[Jolly]

Check Rasmussen...

[LuFins Dad]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

Check Rasmussen...

NYT Sienna is a better poll.