It’s starting
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It’s going to look like a DNA strand over the next monthZ
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I agree. Also, as Nate points out, the gap is easy to misinterpret. These are probabilities of EC victories, not gaps in polling. 55-45 is closer than it seems. Neck and neck almost.
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@jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?
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@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
It’s not going to be a complete helix. My guess is you’ll see the each turn get smaller.
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@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
@jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?
0.2%
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That’s dropped since Biden dropped out. I seem to recall it being as high as 4-5%
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The fat man’s fall continues.
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EC tie probability up to 0.3.
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Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.
Harris’ is +0.3
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As you pointed out yourself, 53-46) in probability is a tossup.
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Give the Word Salad Queen time.
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I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day. It's not like anyone in the country whose financial future is tied to a particular candidate actually likes any of these people.
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@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.
Harris’ is +0.3
She's had 90%+ favorable publicity from every major broadcast media and every cable media, with the exception of FOX, for her entire candidacy. Trump has been 95% negative.
She ought to be better than than that.
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@Aqua-Letifer said in It’s starting:
I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day.
Aqua says the truth.
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Leveled off, some signs it will start contracting again over the next few days…
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Weird, RCP shows a .2 drop for Kamala this morning, but I haven’t seen any polls posted to support the drop.
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Nate posted this today. It brought a smile to my face https://www.huffpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_b_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74
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@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
Weird, RCP shows a .2 drop for Kamala this morning, but I haven’t seen any polls posted to support the drop.
Probably just changing weights as polls age.
