Skip to content
  • Categories
  • Recent
  • Tags
  • Popular
  • Users
  • Groups
Skins
  • Light
  • Cerulean
  • Cosmo
  • Flatly
  • Journal
  • Litera
  • Lumen
  • Lux
  • Materia
  • Minty
  • Morph
  • Pulse
  • Sandstone
  • Simplex
  • Sketchy
  • Spacelab
  • United
  • Yeti
  • Zephyr
  • Dark
  • Cyborg
  • Darkly
  • Quartz
  • Slate
  • Solar
  • Superhero
  • Vapor

  • Default (No Skin)
  • No Skin
Collapse

The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. It’s starting

It’s starting

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
234 Posts 15 Posters 6.8k Views
  • Oldest to Newest
  • Newest to Oldest
  • Most Votes
Reply
  • Reply as topic
Log in to reply
This topic has been deleted. Only users with topic management privileges can see it.
  • J jon-nyc
    19 Sept 2024, 20:42

    It's not a poll, nor a simple average. it's Nate Silver's model. And he updates it every election season with lessons from the previous election.

    L Offline
    L Offline
    LuFins Dad
    wrote on 19 Sept 2024, 21:27 last edited by
    #111

    @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

    It's not a poll, nor a simple average. it's Nate Silver's model. And he updates it every election season with lessons from the previous election.

    Yeah, yeah. I give Nate a lot of credit for giving Trump a 28% chance in 2016. His model did a lot worse in 2020. He had Trump at 10%, but I think we can all agree that the swing states were far tighter than the model thought likely. I tend to think a 50/50 split still leans Trump’s way.

    The Brad

    1 Reply Last reply
    • J Offline
      J Offline
      Jolly
      wrote on 19 Sept 2024, 21:34 last edited by
      #112

      Check Rasmussen...

      “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

      Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

      L 1 Reply Last reply 19 Sept 2024, 21:36
      • J Jolly
        19 Sept 2024, 21:34

        Check Rasmussen...

        L Offline
        L Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote on 19 Sept 2024, 21:36 last edited by
        #113

        @Jolly said in It’s starting:

        Check Rasmussen...

        NYT Sienna is a better poll.

        The Brad

        1 Reply Last reply
        • J jon-nyc
          19 Sept 2024, 17:32

          @89th said in It’s starting:

          Yup, she's the NotDon-NotJoe candidate.

          Ugh there is a better nickname in there but I'm too tired

          The “I promise not to turn 80 in the White House” candidate.

          A policy position I can support.

          G Offline
          G Offline
          George K
          wrote on 19 Sept 2024, 21:38 last edited by
          #114

          @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

          The “I promise not to turn 80 in the White House” candidate.

          A policy position I can support...

          ...now.

          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • T Offline
            T Offline
            taiwan_girl
            wrote on 20 Sept 2024, 01:53 last edited by
            #115

            Should people be voting for policy, or the persons personality? (and I know that it is impossible to separate I guess)

            We had this discussion earlier about it Presdient Trump was not running and there was another candidate (I think we spoke of Gov. DeSantis) who had the exact same policy positions, would he be doing as well? I think that the agreement was that probably not.

            I read a quote from a CEO who said something like, "The only decisions I should be making are those that ONLY I can make". I understand it to mean that he did not want to make low level, medium level or even high level decisions. He has faith in his EVP's, SVP's, etc. to make those. Only the super high level decisions are the ones he should be involved with.

            I think that presidents often get too involved in decisions that others can (and probably should) make.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • J Offline
              J Offline
              jon-nyc
              wrote on 20 Sept 2024, 19:07 last edited by
              #116

              IMG_0237.png

              "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
              -Cormac McCarthy

              1 Reply Last reply
              • L Offline
                L Offline
                LuFins Dad
                wrote on 20 Sept 2024, 20:01 last edited by
                #117

                It’s going to look like a DNA strand over the next monthZ

                The Brad

                1 Reply Last reply
                • J Offline
                  J Offline
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote on 20 Sept 2024, 20:37 last edited by
                  #118

                  I agree. Also, as Nate points out, the gap is easy to misinterpret. These are probabilities of EC victories, not gaps in polling. 55-45 is closer than it seems. Neck and neck almost.

                  "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                  -Cormac McCarthy

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • J Offline
                    J Offline
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 12:47 last edited by
                    #119

                    IMG_0275.jpeg

                    "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                    -Cormac McCarthy

                    L 1 Reply Last reply 22 Sept 2024, 13:12
                    • L Offline
                      L Offline
                      LuFins Dad
                      wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 13:10 last edited by
                      #120

                      @jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?

                      The Brad

                      J 1 Reply Last reply 22 Sept 2024, 13:38
                      • J jon-nyc
                        22 Sept 2024, 12:47

                        IMG_0275.jpeg

                        L Offline
                        L Offline
                        LuFins Dad
                        wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 13:12 last edited by
                        #121

                        @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                        IMG_0275.jpeg

                        It’s not going to be a complete helix. My guess is you’ll see the each turn get smaller.

                        The Brad

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • L LuFins Dad
                          22 Sept 2024, 13:10

                          @jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?

                          J Offline
                          J Offline
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 13:38 last edited by
                          #122

                          @LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

                          @jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?

                          0.2%

                          IMG_0277.jpeg

                          "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                          -Cormac McCarthy

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • L Offline
                            L Offline
                            LuFins Dad
                            wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 14:27 last edited by
                            #123

                            That’s dropped since Biden dropped out. I seem to recall it being as high as 4-5%

                            The Brad

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • J Offline
                              J Offline
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 15:01 last edited by
                              #124

                              The fat man’s fall continues.

                              IMG_0287.png

                              "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                              -Cormac McCarthy

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • J Offline
                                J Offline
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 15:24 last edited by
                                #125

                                EC tie probability up to 0.3.

                                IMG_0288.jpeg

                                "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                                -Cormac McCarthy

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • J Offline
                                  J Offline
                                  jon-nyc
                                  wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 15:30 last edited by
                                  #126

                                  Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.

                                  Harris’ is +0.3

                                  "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                                  -Cormac McCarthy

                                  J 1 Reply Last reply 23 Sept 2024, 20:20
                                  • L Offline
                                    L Offline
                                    LuFins Dad
                                    wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 16:07 last edited by LuFins Dad
                                    #127

                                    As you pointed out yourself, 53-46) in probability is a tossup.

                                    The Brad

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • J Offline
                                      J Offline
                                      Jolly
                                      wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 19:45 last edited by
                                      #128

                                      Give the Word Salad Queen time.

                                      “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                      Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • A Offline
                                        A Offline
                                        Aqua Letifer
                                        wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 20:03 last edited by
                                        #129

                                        I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day. It's not like anyone in the country whose financial future is tied to a particular candidate actually likes any of these people.

                                        Please love yourself.

                                        T 1 Reply Last reply 24 Sept 2024, 01:27
                                        • J jon-nyc
                                          23 Sept 2024, 15:30

                                          Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.

                                          Harris’ is +0.3

                                          J Offline
                                          J Offline
                                          Jolly
                                          wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 20:20 last edited by
                                          #130

                                          @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                                          Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.

                                          Harris’ is +0.3

                                          She's had 90%+ favorable publicity from every major broadcast media and every cable media, with the exception of FOX, for her entire candidacy. Trump has been 95% negative.

                                          She ought to be better than than that.

                                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                          1 Reply Last reply
                                          Reply
                                          • Reply as topic
                                          Log in to reply
                                          • Oldest to Newest
                                          • Newest to Oldest
                                          • Most Votes

                                          120/234

                                          22 Sept 2024, 13:10


                                          • Login

                                          • Don't have an account? Register

                                          • Login or register to search.
                                          120 out of 234
                                          • First post
                                            120/234
                                            Last post
                                          0
                                          • Categories
                                          • Recent
                                          • Tags
                                          • Popular
                                          • Users
                                          • Groups