It’s starting
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wrote on 19 Sept 2024, 20:42 last edited by jon-nyc
It's not a poll, nor a simple average. it's Nate Silver's model. And he updates it every election season with lessons from the previous election.
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It's not a poll, nor a simple average. it's Nate Silver's model. And he updates it every election season with lessons from the previous election.
wrote on 19 Sept 2024, 21:27 last edited by@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
It's not a poll, nor a simple average. it's Nate Silver's model. And he updates it every election season with lessons from the previous election.
Yeah, yeah. I give Nate a lot of credit for giving Trump a 28% chance in 2016. His model did a lot worse in 2020. He had Trump at 10%, but I think we can all agree that the swing states were far tighter than the model thought likely. I tend to think a 50/50 split still leans Trump’s way.
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wrote on 19 Sept 2024, 21:34 last edited by
Check Rasmussen...
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wrote on 19 Sept 2024, 21:36 last edited by
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@89th said in It’s starting:
Yup, she's the NotDon-NotJoe candidate.
Ugh there is a better nickname in there but I'm too tired
The “I promise not to turn 80 in the White House” candidate.
A policy position I can support.
wrote on 19 Sept 2024, 21:38 last edited by@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
The “I promise not to turn 80 in the White House” candidate.
A policy position I can support...
...now.
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wrote on 20 Sept 2024, 01:53 last edited by
Should people be voting for policy, or the persons personality? (and I know that it is impossible to separate I guess)
We had this discussion earlier about it Presdient Trump was not running and there was another candidate (I think we spoke of Gov. DeSantis) who had the exact same policy positions, would he be doing as well? I think that the agreement was that probably not.
I read a quote from a CEO who said something like, "The only decisions I should be making are those that ONLY I can make". I understand it to mean that he did not want to make low level, medium level or even high level decisions. He has faith in his EVP's, SVP's, etc. to make those. Only the super high level decisions are the ones he should be involved with.
I think that presidents often get too involved in decisions that others can (and probably should) make.
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wrote on 20 Sept 2024, 19:07 last edited by
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wrote on 20 Sept 2024, 20:01 last edited by
It’s going to look like a DNA strand over the next monthZ
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wrote on 20 Sept 2024, 20:37 last edited by
I agree. Also, as Nate points out, the gap is easy to misinterpret. These are probabilities of EC victories, not gaps in polling. 55-45 is closer than it seems. Neck and neck almost.
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wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 12:47 last edited by
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wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 13:10 last edited by
@jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?
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wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 13:12 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
It’s not going to be a complete helix. My guess is you’ll see the each turn get smaller.
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@jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?
wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 13:38 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
@jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?
0.2%
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wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 14:27 last edited by
That’s dropped since Biden dropped out. I seem to recall it being as high as 4-5%
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wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 15:01 last edited by
The fat man’s fall continues.
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wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 15:24 last edited by
EC tie probability up to 0.3.
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wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 15:30 last edited by
Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.
Harris’ is +0.3
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wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 16:07 last edited by LuFins Dad
As you pointed out yourself, 53-46) in probability is a tossup.
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wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 19:45 last edited by
Give the Word Salad Queen time.
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wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 20:03 last edited by
I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day. It's not like anyone in the country whose financial future is tied to a particular candidate actually likes any of these people.