It’s starting

[Jolly]

Actually, she's a media creation. Her campaign is fueled by Big Money and she is buying an enormous amount of advertising. It's crafted, polished and ubiquitous on the airwaves.

She's running Biden's Basement Strategy and catering to the LIV, particularly the gibmedats and the college educated suburban women.

I've watched Trump do a townhall, a one-hour Hannity interview and the Gutfeld! show. In all of them, he's still Trump, but he churns out ideas, both good and bad. And he makes observations...Last night he talked about the Evangelical vote and the 2nd Amendment vote, and why he's puzzled by lower voter turnout in those groups than expected.

So, while Trump does come out with some goofy stuff, that brain is spinning and thinking pretty well for a guy his age, especially as juxtaposed with Harris.

[jon-nyc]

By what margin did Trump win the debate again? 92 to 7 he said?

[jon-nyc]

When does he start asking for another debate?

[LuFins Dad]

So based on past poll performances, Trump’s up +3

[jon-nyc]

It's not a poll, nor a simple average. it's Nate Silver's model. And he updates it every election season with lessons from the previous election.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

It's not a poll, nor a simple average. it's Nate Silver's model. And he updates it every election season with lessons from the previous election.

Yeah, yeah. I give Nate a lot of credit for giving Trump a 28% chance in 2016. His model did a lot worse in 2020. He had Trump at 10%, but I think we can all agree that the swing states were far tighter than the model thought likely. I tend to think a 50/50 split still leans Trump’s way.

[Jolly]

Check Rasmussen...

[LuFins Dad]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

Check Rasmussen...

NYT Sienna is a better poll.

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

The “I promise not to turn 80 in the White House” candidate.

A policy position I can support...

...now.

[taiwan_girl]

Should people be voting for policy, or the persons personality? (and I know that it is impossible to separate I guess)

We had this discussion earlier about it Presdient Trump was not running and there was another candidate (I think we spoke of Gov. DeSantis) who had the exact same policy positions, would he be doing as well? I think that the agreement was that probably not.

I read a quote from a CEO who said something like, "The only decisions I should be making are those that ONLY I can make". I understand it to mean that he did not want to make low level, medium level or even high level decisions. He has faith in his EVP's, SVP's, etc. to make those. Only the super high level decisions are the ones he should be involved with.

I think that presidents often get too involved in decisions that others can (and probably should) make.

[jon-nyc]

[LuFins Dad]

It’s going to look like a DNA strand over the next monthZ

[jon-nyc]

I agree. Also, as Nate points out, the gap is easy to misinterpret. These are probabilities of EC victories, not gaps in polling. 55-45 is closer than it seems. Neck and neck almost.

[jon-nyc]

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

It’s not going to be a complete helix. My guess is you’ll see the each turn get smaller.

[jon-nyc]

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

@jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?

0.2%

[LuFins Dad]

That’s dropped since Biden dropped out. I seem to recall it being as high as 4-5%

[jon-nyc]

The fat man’s fall continues.

[jon-nyc]

EC tie probability up to 0.3.