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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
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  3. Calling the States

Calling the States

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  • J jon-nyc
    4 Nov 2020, 05:25

    Where are you seeing that?

    If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight

    Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.

    K Offline
    K Offline
    Klaus
    wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:43 last edited by
    #89

    Now it's 70%.

    81614e90-13a2-427a-b144-65b025bbda2f-image.png

    @jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

    Where are you seeing that?

    If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight

    Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • J Offline
      J Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:46 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:48
      #90

      Oh, that's not a probability, it's a vote count.

      The reporting of results happens by precinct (mini-district). So it's hard to tell what it means unless you know which districts have reported their results.

      Imagine 3% reporting in Pennsylvania. Is it from a rural area in the middle of the state? Or from a black neighborhood in Philly? The two will give you lopsided opposite answers.

      "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
      -Cormac McCarthy

      1 Reply Last reply
      • J Offline
        J Offline
        jon-nyc
        wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:51 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:53
        #91

        Some of the more professional news organizations have detailed information about each district and how it is expected to vote, based on demographics, polling, and voting history.

        Armed with that info, they can make intelligent guesses about how the whole state is trending based on how the actual results of a few districts compare to their expectations.

        Thats how these states get 'called' early, and how those 'probability needles' work.

        "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
        -Cormac McCarthy

        1 Reply Last reply
        • J Offline
          J Offline
          jon-nyc
          wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 06:00 last edited by
          #92

          Ok I’m going to bed.

          I think the NYT Georgia thing is just a hiccup.

          But still this is anyone’s race. Quite a bit closer than I was expecting and hoping for.

          "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
          -Cormac McCarthy

          1 Reply Last reply
          • J Offline
            J Offline
            jon-nyc
            wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 06:23 last edited by
            #93

            Nate is saying Biden looking good in NE02.

            Michigan and Wisconsin make him president

            "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
            -Cormac McCarthy

            1 Reply Last reply
            • A Offline
              A Offline
              Aqua Letifer
              wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 06:24 last edited by
              #94

              BC56D9E9-2644-4A07-A9E7-901AA847B1D6.jpeg

              Please love yourself.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • K Offline
                K Offline
                Klaus
                wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 07:11 last edited by
                #95

                So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!

                A 1 Reply Last reply 4 Nov 2020, 07:15
                • K Klaus
                  4 Nov 2020, 07:11

                  So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!

                  A Offline
                  A Offline
                  Aqua Letifer
                  wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 07:15 last edited by
                  #96

                  @Klaus said in Calling the States:

                  So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!

                  I'm still up.

                  Please love yourself.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • X Offline
                    X Offline
                    xenon
                    wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 07:19 last edited by
                    #97

                    I’m cheating by being on the west coast

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • K Offline
                      K Offline
                      Klaus
                      wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 10:51 last edited by
                      #98

                      Here's one thing I don't understand.

                      Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                      The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                      R A 8 3 Replies Last reply 4 Nov 2020, 10:55
                      • K Klaus
                        4 Nov 2020, 10:51

                        Here's one thing I don't understand.

                        Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                        The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                        R Offline
                        R Offline
                        Rich
                        wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 10:55 last edited by
                        #99

                        @Klaus

                        Yeah, those were the days.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • K Klaus
                          4 Nov 2020, 10:51

                          Here's one thing I don't understand.

                          Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                          The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                          A Offline
                          A Offline
                          Aqua Letifer
                          wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 11:02 last edited by
                          #100

                          @Klaus said in Calling the States:

                          The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                          Candidates can gum up the works by demanding a recount.

                          Please love yourself.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • B Offline
                            B Offline
                            bachophile
                            wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 11:31 last edited by
                            #101

                            I’ve been up since 5 am

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • K Klaus
                              4 Nov 2020, 10:51

                              Here's one thing I don't understand.

                              Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                              The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                              8 Online
                              8 Online
                              89th
                              wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 11:57 last edited by
                              #102

                              @Klaus said in Calling the States:

                              Here's one thing I don't understand.

                              Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                              The prime example is Gore in 2000. After he called to concede to Bush, and later Florida returned to “too close to call”, at that point it made Gore look like a whining loser as opposed to if he had not conceded, the resulting county by county recount would’ve looked more objective. Ultimately Bush won because the courts told Gore’s team basically to stop cherry picking which (dem leaning) counties to recount.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • 8 Online
                                8 Online
                                89th
                                wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 12:02 last edited by
                                #103

                                Have to admit, I woke up this morning and the race is closer than I expected! Still don’t see Trump winning though. Odds don’t look good to get to 270 and there’s going to be a trickle in of mail in votes that will favor Biden overall.

                                J 1 Reply Last reply 4 Nov 2020, 12:49
                                • 8 Online
                                  8 Online
                                  89th
                                  wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 12:22 last edited by
                                  #104

                                  Oh, it’s nice to see the senate/house is likely not a blue wave. That’s a nice surprise if it holds.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • K Offline
                                    K Offline
                                    Klaus
                                    wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 12:37 last edited by
                                    #105

                                    It would be nice if somebody could tell Trump to either present evidence for all his vague insinuations of election fraud, or to STFU about it.

                                    J 1 Reply Last reply 4 Nov 2020, 12:53
                                    • 8 89th
                                      4 Nov 2020, 12:02

                                      Have to admit, I woke up this morning and the race is closer than I expected! Still don’t see Trump winning though. Odds don’t look good to get to 270 and there’s going to be a trickle in of mail in votes that will favor Biden overall.

                                      J Offline
                                      J Offline
                                      Jolly
                                      wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 12:49 last edited by Jolly 11 Apr 2020, 12:49
                                      #106

                                      @89th said in Calling the States:

                                      Have to admit, I woke up this morning and the race is closer than I expected! Still don’t see Trump winning though. Odds don’t look good to get to 270 and there’s going to be a trickle in of mail in votes that will favor Biden overall.

                                      Yep, your Biden landslide prediction stunk..

                                      “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                      Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                      8 1 Reply Last reply 6 Nov 2020, 19:17
                                      • L Offline
                                        L Offline
                                        LuFins Dad
                                        wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 12:51 last edited by
                                        #107

                                        Trump’s lead in Michigan won’t stand up to the early vote influx. It’s over.

                                        The Brad

                                        L 1 Reply Last reply 4 Nov 2020, 12:59
                                        • K Klaus
                                          4 Nov 2020, 12:37

                                          It would be nice if somebody could tell Trump to either present evidence for all his vague insinuations of election fraud, or to STFU about it.

                                          J Offline
                                          J Offline
                                          Jolly
                                          wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 12:53 last edited by
                                          #108

                                          @Klaus said in Calling the States:

                                          It would be nice if somebody could tell Trump to either present evidence for all his vague insinuations of election fraud, or to STFU about it.

                                          Philly has long been known as a hotbed of fraud. That's one problem.

                                          Another is the manipulation of mail-in ballots. There are multiple problems with those, but Pennsylvania is horrible. Signatures don't have to match, envelopes cannot be matched with ballots after an initial count and they are counting ballots received up to three days past the election date.

                                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                          K 1 Reply Last reply 4 Nov 2020, 12:55
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