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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Calling the States

Calling the States

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  • LarryL Offline
    LarryL Offline
    Larry
    wrote on last edited by
    #84

    This isn't the first time Philadelphia has tried to steal an election.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #85

      Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.

      A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      L 1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

        Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.

        A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.

        L Offline
        L Offline
        Loki
        wrote on last edited by
        #86

        @jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

        Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.

        A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.

        More shocking about Trump. Can’t believe he was muzzled.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • L Offline
          L Offline
          Loki
          wrote on last edited by
          #87

          I m seeing the senate stays GOP? Is that consensus?

          1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
            #88

            What the NYT is saying about its GA shift:

            (the 3 states it is referring to are GA, FL, NC. All night they were predicting Trump all 3, now they've switched GA)

            Screen Shot 2020-11-04 at 12.34.38 AM.png

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

              Where are you seeing that?

              If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight

              Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.

              KlausK Offline
              KlausK Offline
              Klaus
              wrote on last edited by
              #89

              Now it's 70%.

              81614e90-13a2-427a-b144-65b025bbda2f-image.png

              @jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

              Where are you seeing that?

              If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight

              Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ Offline
                jon-nycJ Offline
                jon-nyc
                wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                #90

                Oh, that's not a probability, it's a vote count.

                The reporting of results happens by precinct (mini-district). So it's hard to tell what it means unless you know which districts have reported their results.

                Imagine 3% reporting in Pennsylvania. Is it from a rural area in the middle of the state? Or from a black neighborhood in Philly? The two will give you lopsided opposite answers.

                Only non-witches get due process.

                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                1 Reply Last reply
                • jon-nycJ Offline
                  jon-nycJ Offline
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                  #91

                  Some of the more professional news organizations have detailed information about each district and how it is expected to vote, based on demographics, polling, and voting history.

                  Armed with that info, they can make intelligent guesses about how the whole state is trending based on how the actual results of a few districts compare to their expectations.

                  Thats how these states get 'called' early, and how those 'probability needles' work.

                  Only non-witches get due process.

                  • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ Offline
                    jon-nycJ Offline
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #92

                    Ok I’m going to bed.

                    I think the NYT Georgia thing is just a hiccup.

                    But still this is anyone’s race. Quite a bit closer than I was expecting and hoping for.

                    Only non-witches get due process.

                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • jon-nycJ Offline
                      jon-nycJ Offline
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #93

                      Nate is saying Biden looking good in NE02.

                      Michigan and Wisconsin make him president

                      Only non-witches get due process.

                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • Aqua LetiferA Offline
                        Aqua LetiferA Offline
                        Aqua Letifer
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #94

                        BC56D9E9-2644-4A07-A9E7-901AA847B1D6.jpeg

                        Please love yourself.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • KlausK Offline
                          KlausK Offline
                          Klaus
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #95

                          So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!

                          Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                          • KlausK Klaus

                            So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!

                            Aqua LetiferA Offline
                            Aqua LetiferA Offline
                            Aqua Letifer
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #96

                            @Klaus said in Calling the States:

                            So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!

                            I'm still up.

                            Please love yourself.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • X Offline
                              X Offline
                              xenon
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #97

                              I’m cheating by being on the west coast

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • KlausK Offline
                                KlausK Offline
                                Klaus
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #98

                                Here's one thing I don't understand.

                                Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                                The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                                RichR Aqua LetiferA 89th8 3 Replies Last reply
                                • KlausK Klaus

                                  Here's one thing I don't understand.

                                  Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                                  The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                                  RichR Online
                                  RichR Online
                                  Rich
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #99

                                  @Klaus

                                  Yeah, those were the days.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • KlausK Klaus

                                    Here's one thing I don't understand.

                                    Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                                    The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                                    Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                    Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                    Aqua Letifer
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #100

                                    @Klaus said in Calling the States:

                                    The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                                    Candidates can gum up the works by demanding a recount.

                                    Please love yourself.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • bachophileB Offline
                                      bachophileB Offline
                                      bachophile
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #101

                                      I’ve been up since 5 am

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • KlausK Klaus

                                        Here's one thing I don't understand.

                                        Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                                        The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                                        89th8 Online
                                        89th8 Online
                                        89th
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #102

                                        @Klaus said in Calling the States:

                                        Here's one thing I don't understand.

                                        Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                                        The prime example is Gore in 2000. After he called to concede to Bush, and later Florida returned to “too close to call”, at that point it made Gore look like a whining loser as opposed to if he had not conceded, the resulting county by county recount would’ve looked more objective. Ultimately Bush won because the courts told Gore’s team basically to stop cherry picking which (dem leaning) counties to recount.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • 89th8 Online
                                          89th8 Online
                                          89th
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #103

                                          Have to admit, I woke up this morning and the race is closer than I expected! Still don’t see Trump winning though. Odds don’t look good to get to 270 and there’s going to be a trickle in of mail in votes that will favor Biden overall.

                                          JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
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