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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Calling the States

Calling the States

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  • jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #85

    Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.

    A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    L 1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

      Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.

      A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.

      L Offline
      L Offline
      Loki
      wrote on last edited by
      #86

      @jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

      Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.

      A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.

      More shocking about Trump. Can’t believe he was muzzled.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • L Offline
        L Offline
        Loki
        wrote on last edited by
        #87

        I m seeing the senate stays GOP? Is that consensus?

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nyc
          wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
          #88

          What the NYT is saying about its GA shift:

          (the 3 states it is referring to are GA, FL, NC. All night they were predicting Trump all 3, now they've switched GA)

          Screen Shot 2020-11-04 at 12.34.38 AM.png

          Only non-witches get due process.

          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
          1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

            Where are you seeing that?

            If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight

            Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.

            KlausK Online
            KlausK Online
            Klaus
            wrote on last edited by
            #89

            Now it's 70%.

            81614e90-13a2-427a-b144-65b025bbda2f-image.png

            @jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

            Where are you seeing that?

            If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight

            Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ Offline
              jon-nycJ Offline
              jon-nyc
              wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
              #90

              Oh, that's not a probability, it's a vote count.

              The reporting of results happens by precinct (mini-district). So it's hard to tell what it means unless you know which districts have reported their results.

              Imagine 3% reporting in Pennsylvania. Is it from a rural area in the middle of the state? Or from a black neighborhood in Philly? The two will give you lopsided opposite answers.

              Only non-witches get due process.

              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
              1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ Offline
                jon-nycJ Offline
                jon-nyc
                wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                #91

                Some of the more professional news organizations have detailed information about each district and how it is expected to vote, based on demographics, polling, and voting history.

                Armed with that info, they can make intelligent guesses about how the whole state is trending based on how the actual results of a few districts compare to their expectations.

                Thats how these states get 'called' early, and how those 'probability needles' work.

                Only non-witches get due process.

                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                1 Reply Last reply
                • jon-nycJ Offline
                  jon-nycJ Offline
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #92

                  Ok I’m going to bed.

                  I think the NYT Georgia thing is just a hiccup.

                  But still this is anyone’s race. Quite a bit closer than I was expecting and hoping for.

                  Only non-witches get due process.

                  • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ Offline
                    jon-nycJ Offline
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #93

                    Nate is saying Biden looking good in NE02.

                    Michigan and Wisconsin make him president

                    Only non-witches get due process.

                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • Aqua LetiferA Offline
                      Aqua LetiferA Offline
                      Aqua Letifer
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #94

                      BC56D9E9-2644-4A07-A9E7-901AA847B1D6.jpeg

                      Please love yourself.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • KlausK Online
                        KlausK Online
                        Klaus
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #95

                        So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!

                        Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                        • KlausK Klaus

                          So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!

                          Aqua LetiferA Offline
                          Aqua LetiferA Offline
                          Aqua Letifer
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #96

                          @Klaus said in Calling the States:

                          So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!

                          I'm still up.

                          Please love yourself.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • X Offline
                            X Offline
                            xenon
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #97

                            I’m cheating by being on the west coast

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • KlausK Online
                              KlausK Online
                              Klaus
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #98

                              Here's one thing I don't understand.

                              Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                              The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                              RichR Aqua LetiferA 89th8 3 Replies Last reply
                              • KlausK Klaus

                                Here's one thing I don't understand.

                                Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                                The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                                RichR Online
                                RichR Online
                                Rich
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #99

                                @Klaus

                                Yeah, those were the days.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • KlausK Klaus

                                  Here's one thing I don't understand.

                                  Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                                  The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                                  Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                  Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                  Aqua Letifer
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #100

                                  @Klaus said in Calling the States:

                                  The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                                  Candidates can gum up the works by demanding a recount.

                                  Please love yourself.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • bachophileB Offline
                                    bachophileB Offline
                                    bachophile
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #101

                                    I’ve been up since 5 am

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • KlausK Klaus

                                      Here's one thing I don't understand.

                                      Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                                      The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                                      89th8 Offline
                                      89th8 Offline
                                      89th
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #102

                                      @Klaus said in Calling the States:

                                      Here's one thing I don't understand.

                                      Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                                      The prime example is Gore in 2000. After he called to concede to Bush, and later Florida returned to “too close to call”, at that point it made Gore look like a whining loser as opposed to if he had not conceded, the resulting county by county recount would’ve looked more objective. Ultimately Bush won because the courts told Gore’s team basically to stop cherry picking which (dem leaning) counties to recount.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • 89th8 Offline
                                        89th8 Offline
                                        89th
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #103

                                        Have to admit, I woke up this morning and the race is closer than I expected! Still don’t see Trump winning though. Odds don’t look good to get to 270 and there’s going to be a trickle in of mail in votes that will favor Biden overall.

                                        JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                        • 89th8 Offline
                                          89th8 Offline
                                          89th
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #104

                                          Oh, it’s nice to see the senate/house is likely not a blue wave. That’s a nice surprise if it holds.

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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