Calling the States
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:35 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:36
What the NYT is saying about its GA shift:
(the 3 states it is referring to are GA, FL, NC. All night they were predicting Trump all 3, now they've switched GA)
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Where are you seeing that?
If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight
Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:43 last edited byNow it's 70%.
@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
Where are you seeing that?
If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight
Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:46 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:48
Oh, that's not a probability, it's a vote count.
The reporting of results happens by precinct (mini-district). So it's hard to tell what it means unless you know which districts have reported their results.
Imagine 3% reporting in Pennsylvania. Is it from a rural area in the middle of the state? Or from a black neighborhood in Philly? The two will give you lopsided opposite answers.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:51 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:53
Some of the more professional news organizations have detailed information about each district and how it is expected to vote, based on demographics, polling, and voting history.
Armed with that info, they can make intelligent guesses about how the whole state is trending based on how the actual results of a few districts compare to their expectations.
Thats how these states get 'called' early, and how those 'probability needles' work.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 06:00 last edited by
Ok I’m going to bed.
I think the NYT Georgia thing is just a hiccup.
But still this is anyone’s race. Quite a bit closer than I was expecting and hoping for.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 06:23 last edited by
Nate is saying Biden looking good in NE02.
Michigan and Wisconsin make him president
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 06:24 last edited by
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 07:11 last edited by
So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 07:15 last edited by
@Klaus said in Calling the States:
So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!
I'm still up.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 07:19 last edited by
I’m cheating by being on the west coast
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 10:51 last edited by
Here's one thing I don't understand.
Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?
The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?
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Here's one thing I don't understand.
Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?
The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?
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Here's one thing I don't understand.
Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?
The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 11:02 last edited by@Klaus said in Calling the States:
The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?
Candidates can gum up the works by demanding a recount.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 11:31 last edited by
I’ve been up since 5 am
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Here's one thing I don't understand.
Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?
The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 11:57 last edited by@Klaus said in Calling the States:
Here's one thing I don't understand.
Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?
The prime example is Gore in 2000. After he called to concede to Bush, and later Florida returned to “too close to call”, at that point it made Gore look like a whining loser as opposed to if he had not conceded, the resulting county by county recount would’ve looked more objective. Ultimately Bush won because the courts told Gore’s team basically to stop cherry picking which (dem leaning) counties to recount.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 12:02 last edited by
Have to admit, I woke up this morning and the race is closer than I expected! Still don’t see Trump winning though. Odds don’t look good to get to 270 and there’s going to be a trickle in of mail in votes that will favor Biden overall.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 12:22 last edited by
Oh, it’s nice to see the senate/house is likely not a blue wave. That’s a nice surprise if it holds.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 12:37 last edited by
It would be nice if somebody could tell Trump to either present evidence for all his vague insinuations of election fraud, or to STFU about it.
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Have to admit, I woke up this morning and the race is closer than I expected! Still don’t see Trump winning though. Odds don’t look good to get to 270 and there’s going to be a trickle in of mail in votes that will favor Biden overall.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 12:49 last edited by Jolly 11 Apr 2020, 12:49@89th said in Calling the States:
Have to admit, I woke up this morning and the race is closer than I expected! Still don’t see Trump winning though. Odds don’t look good to get to 270 and there’s going to be a trickle in of mail in votes that will favor Biden overall.
Yep, your Biden landslide prediction stunk..
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 12:51 last edited by
Trump’s lead in Michigan won’t stand up to the early vote influx. It’s over.