Is the predictive model wrong?
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Two models NY is using besides the IHME.
No labels on y axes but if you eyeball it the numbers for today are in the right spot.
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DON’T let them eat cake.
- RFK Jr -
I created a thread for this but deleted it. I didn't think it could be true.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Friday that 2,935 New Yorkers died from the coronavirus over the last 24-hours, the highest single increase in deaths since the outbreak began a few weeks ago.
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The more I look into this model the less I like it. It strikes me as more of a ‘technical analysis’ than a ‘fundamental analysis’ in that it’s basically a curve fitting exercise heavily relying on the Wuhan experience.
It seems to be predicting way too early of a peak and is overall too optimistic about our social-distancing measures.
I would love to see the details behind the McKinsey models.
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@jon-nyc Which model? The covid19.healthdata.org model? I’ve been calling that model crap for the opposite reason. It undervalues decisions made by the general public and overvalues decisions handed down by the government.
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Yes that model. That’s not really the opposite of my view, I also think it overstates the effect of our lockdown.
DON’T let them eat cake.
- RFK Jr -
They’re not public to my knowledge.
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I’d like to see the ventilator numbers. And Florida is way too early to take anything from a 1 day aberration
Me/rry/Christmas
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@LuFins-Dad said in Is the predictive model wrong?:
Florida is way too early to take anything from a 1 day aberration
Absolutely. We've seen 1 day dips before.
