Is the predictive model wrong?
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I'd have to imagine with most of the country essentially staying at home (really, really, really an unprecedented time we are in!), there's probably a much better impact on the virus than expected. Just think about those "scattering dots" diagrams of how a virus spreads and what if many of the dots are suddenly isolated? Massively good impact. Fingers crossed...
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Fingers crossed.
FWIW Cuomo discussed models they look at yesterday. He said the forecast for peak resource use varies from 7 days to 31 days. The IHME model is 7 days (April 9th peak).
We're still WAY under testing as evidenced by our 38% positive test rate. So I wouldn't be surprised if the models showing a later peak are more accurate. I don't know enough about the other states to comment.
Still, wasn't the IHME model supposed to be updated? Why wouldn't they update the curve with actuals?
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I created a thread for this but deleted it. I didn't think it could be true.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Friday that 2,935 New Yorkers died from the coronavirus over the last 24-hours, the highest single increase in deaths since the outbreak began a few weeks ago.
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The more I look into this model the less I like it. It strikes me as more of a ‘technical analysis’ than a ‘fundamental analysis’ in that it’s basically a curve fitting exercise heavily relying on the Wuhan experience.
It seems to be predicting way too early of a peak and is overall too optimistic about our social-distancing measures.
I would love to see the details behind the McKinsey models.
Only non-witches get due process.
- Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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The more I look into this model the less I like it. It strikes me as more of a ‘technical analysis’ than a ‘fundamental analysis’ in that it’s basically a curve fitting exercise heavily relying on the Wuhan experience.
It seems to be predicting way too early of a peak and is overall too optimistic about our social-distancing measures.
I would love to see the details behind the McKinsey models.
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The more I look into this model the less I like it. It strikes me as more of a ‘technical analysis’ than a ‘fundamental analysis’ in that it’s basically a curve fitting exercise heavily relying on the Wuhan experience.
It seems to be predicting way too early of a peak and is overall too optimistic about our social-distancing measures.
I would love to see the details behind the McKinsey models.
@jon-nyc Which model? The covid19.healthdata.org model? I’ve been calling that model crap for the opposite reason. It undervalues decisions made by the general public and overvalues decisions handed down by the government.
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Yes that model. That’s not really the opposite of my view, I also think it overstates the effect of our lockdown.
@jon-nyc do you have a link to the McKinsey models?
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I’d like to see the ventilator numbers. And Florida is way too early to take anything from a 1 day aberration
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I’d like to see the ventilator numbers. And Florida is way too early to take anything from a 1 day aberration
@LuFins-Dad said in Is the predictive model wrong?:
Florida is way too early to take anything from a 1 day aberration
Absolutely. We've seen 1 day dips before.
