Is the predictive model wrong?
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wrote on 3 Apr 2020, 15:50 last edited by
Impeach him!
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wrote on 4 Apr 2020, 10:21 last edited by
The more I look into this model the less I like it. It strikes me as more of a ‘technical analysis’ than a ‘fundamental analysis’ in that it’s basically a curve fitting exercise heavily relying on the Wuhan experience.
It seems to be predicting way too early of a peak and is overall too optimistic about our social-distancing measures.
I would love to see the details behind the McKinsey models.
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The more I look into this model the less I like it. It strikes me as more of a ‘technical analysis’ than a ‘fundamental analysis’ in that it’s basically a curve fitting exercise heavily relying on the Wuhan experience.
It seems to be predicting way too early of a peak and is overall too optimistic about our social-distancing measures.
I would love to see the details behind the McKinsey models.
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The more I look into this model the less I like it. It strikes me as more of a ‘technical analysis’ than a ‘fundamental analysis’ in that it’s basically a curve fitting exercise heavily relying on the Wuhan experience.
It seems to be predicting way too early of a peak and is overall too optimistic about our social-distancing measures.
I would love to see the details behind the McKinsey models.
wrote on 4 Apr 2020, 12:28 last edited by@jon-nyc Which model? The covid19.healthdata.org model? I’ve been calling that model crap for the opposite reason. It undervalues decisions made by the general public and overvalues decisions handed down by the government.
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wrote on 4 Apr 2020, 12:52 last edited by
Yes that model. That’s not really the opposite of my view, I also think it overstates the effect of our lockdown.
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Yes that model. That’s not really the opposite of my view, I also think it overstates the effect of our lockdown.
wrote on 4 Apr 2020, 12:59 last edited by@jon-nyc do you have a link to the McKinsey models?
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wrote on 4 Apr 2020, 13:47 last edited by jon-nyc 4 Apr 2020, 13:47
They’re not public to my knowledge.
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wrote on 4 Apr 2020, 20:31 last edited by
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wrote on 4 Apr 2020, 20:44 last edited by LuFins Dad 4 Apr 2020, 20:45
I’d like to see the ventilator numbers. And Florida is way too early to take anything from a 1 day aberration
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I’d like to see the ventilator numbers. And Florida is way too early to take anything from a 1 day aberration
wrote on 4 Apr 2020, 20:55 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in Is the predictive model wrong?:
Florida is way too early to take anything from a 1 day aberration
Absolutely. We've seen 1 day dips before.