Trends
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If you're putting up money, 62% as of right now...
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I’m chuckling because there seems to be an editorial difference of opinion at FiveThirtyEight. The number is still at 45-55 as there aren’t any polls coming through today, but the headline has changed three times from “Democrats are *Slightly * favored to win the Senate” to “It’s a Dead Heat for the Senate, then back to “Democrats are Slightly…” and now back to “Dead Heat”…
My guess is that somebody wants to keep giving the moral support to their side and Silver keeps overriding them and reminding them that the numbers are the numbers…
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LOL
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Aaaaaand it’s back to a Dead Heat
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46, if anybody is still interested.
@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
46, if anybody is still interested.
Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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Pelosi: I ‘cannot believe anybody would vote for’ GOP in midterms
I know how she feels, in the other direction
https://nypost.com/2022/10/25/pelosi-says-she-cannot-believe-anyone-would-vote-republican/
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Such a sad admission, to not be able to understand other human beings. One would expect the party of compassion to be able to do so easily, as their core competency. But as always, when someone proudly claims to not be able to understand other people, it’s not because they’re stupid or unsympathetic. It’s because they have an excess of virtue.
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
46, if anybody is still interested.
Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.
@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
46, if anybody is still interested.
Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.
It’s still trending… 48.
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New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory. 54 is a legitimate number for the Rs…
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New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory. 54 is a legitimate number for the Rs…
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.
Trends…
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/25/new-hampshire-senate-republicans-bolduc
Look at the last 4 polls for NH- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
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This post is deleted!
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You can play with the model here by picking the winners of some of the more contested states. If Budd wins in NC (where he is strongly favored), tge model favors Republicans 59-41. If Budd and Vance both win, it jumps to 67-33. These are races that Rams are projected to win…https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/
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Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL
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@taiwan_girl said in Trends:
Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL
There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.
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Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…
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Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…
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@taiwan_girl said in Trends:
Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL
There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.
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Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…
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Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…
@LuFins-Dad Good points!
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