Trends
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wrote on 24 Oct 2022, 12:24 last edited by
LOL
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wrote on 24 Oct 2022, 21:49 last edited by
Aaaaaand it’s back to a Dead Heat
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wrote on 26 Oct 2022, 01:56 last edited by
46, if anybody is still interested.
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46, if anybody is still interested.
wrote on 26 Oct 2022, 02:02 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
46, if anybody is still interested.
Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.
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wrote on 26 Oct 2022, 15:27 last edited by
Pelosi: I ‘cannot believe anybody would vote for’ GOP in midterms
I know how she feels, in the other direction
https://nypost.com/2022/10/25/pelosi-says-she-cannot-believe-anyone-would-vote-republican/
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wrote on 26 Oct 2022, 15:37 last edited by Horace
Such a sad admission, to not be able to understand other human beings. One would expect the party of compassion to be able to do so easily, as their core competency. But as always, when someone proudly claims to not be able to understand other people, it’s not because they’re stupid or unsympathetic. It’s because they have an excess of virtue.
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
46, if anybody is still interested.
Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.
wrote on 27 Oct 2022, 21:18 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
46, if anybody is still interested.
Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.
It’s still trending… 48.
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wrote on 28 Oct 2022, 15:12 last edited by
New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory. 54 is a legitimate number for the Rs…
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New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory. 54 is a legitimate number for the Rs…
wrote on 28 Oct 2022, 15:44 last edited by -
wrote on 28 Oct 2022, 15:46 last edited by
why are they italicizing those words? meant to remove doubt as to whether they're editorialized? Maybe the italics is meant to convey that they are defined labels for certain probability ranges.
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wrote on 28 Oct 2022, 17:03 last edited by
@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:
New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.
Trends…
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/25/new-hampshire-senate-republicans-bolduc
Look at the last 4 polls for NH- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
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wrote on 29 Oct 2022, 04:58 last edited byThis post is deleted!
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wrote on 30 Oct 2022, 00:47 last edited by LuFins Dad
You can play with the model here by picking the winners of some of the more contested states. If Budd wins in NC (where he is strongly favored), tge model favors Republicans 59-41. If Budd and Vance both win, it jumps to 67-33. These are races that Rams are projected to win…https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/
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wrote on 30 Oct 2022, 04:03 last edited by
Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL
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wrote on 30 Oct 2022, 04:35 last edited by
@taiwan_girl said in Trends:
Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL
There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.
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Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…
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Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…
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@taiwan_girl said in Trends:
Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL
There were no new lessons. We already knew the two primary lessons of 2016, but the media just ignored it.
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Republicans typically perform better at the voting booth than they do in the polls…
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Far more important than the actual poll numbers are the trends. Nate Silver was excoriated in the media for pointing out the trends were going in Trump’s favor and that it would be close. He also pointed out that Trump was easily within the margin of error of most polls. He was worse than ignored…
wrote on 30 Oct 2022, 04:45 last edited by@LuFins-Dad Good points!
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wrote on 31 Oct 2022, 22:23 last edited by
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wrote on 31 Oct 2022, 23:04 last edited by
Nailbiter here...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf
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Nailbiter here...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20221011_LA_PPP.pdf
