US has a shitload of cases

Klaus · wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 22:47

Second derivatives going down?

jon-nyc · wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 22:50

Yes, for sure. If bumpy along the way.

jon-nyc · 15 Apr 2020, 21:52

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

jon-nyc · 16 Apr 2020, 21:59

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

2 days since update.

632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

LuFins Dad · 16 Apr 2020, 15:58

Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

Aqua Letifer · wrote on 16 Apr 2020, 15:58

@LuFins-Dad said in US has a shitload of cases:

Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

Exactly. We haven't hit <1.0 yet.

89th · 16 Apr 2020, 22:03

Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

jon-nyc · 17 Apr 2020, 22:02

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

Aqua Letifer · 8 89th 16 Apr 2020, 17:27

@89th said in US has a shitload of cases:

Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

We are but like jon, I don't think we're ever going to get there.

jon-nyc · wrote on 16 Apr 2020, 22:12

I would love for the Tibco estimates to be true.

I keep meaning to look into the calculations with more detail.

The reason I'm skeptical is the study from Wuhan and the study form Imperial College re Europe. Those were deep dives (which I've yet to fully dive into myself) into estimating R0 in countries that are ahead of us and/or did a stiricter lockdown. And they we not likely there.

I worry the tibco calculations are less rigorous, something arithmetically generated with each new day's data. But I don't know enough yet.

jon-nyc · wrote on 16 Apr 2020, 22:14

But to answer your question 89, look here and scroll down. The site is pretty nonfunctional on mobile devices.

https://demo.spotfire.cloud.tibco.com/spotfire/wp/analysis?file=/Public/COVID19 Insights&waid=P2gtdoUCWEGNNI5H79yua-1606130a13Atwl&wavid=0&options=3-0

89th · 17 Apr 2020, 01:19

Great site. Got better as I dug into each section, thanks!

@Aqua-Letifer What do you mean we're ever going to get there. I'd imagine very soon (in the next 2-3 weeks) we'll have fewer cases "today" than there were "yesterday" on a consistent basis.

Aqua Letifer · 8 89th 17 Apr 2020, 01:14

@89th I think slightly more people will continue to get infected per day than we have recoveries per day. Would be great to be wrong about that.

89th · wrote on 17 Apr 2020, 01:35

I see, sorry I haven't been following the stats as closely. I was referring to the growth factor of "new cases today < new cases yesterday", irregardless (kidding, regardless) of recoveries.

jon-nyc · 18 Apr 2020, 22:28

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase. I'm thinking yesterday's number was wrong???

jon-nyc · 19 Apr 2020, 22:17

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.

726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%

At what point does a flat % increase go from being mildly encouraging to mildly concerning?

LuFins Dad · wrote on 18 Apr 2020, 23:37

I’m not terribly surprised. I think my community is better than most, and I still am surprised at how cavalier some people are.

I commented to Aqua the other day that my biggest concern was a long drawn out stretch at 5%.

jon-nyc · 21 Apr 2020, 22:28

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%

755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%

jon-nyc · 22 Apr 2020, 22:28

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%

820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%

jon-nyc · 24 Apr 2020, 22:18

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%
820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%

846,982 3.3% increase. Deaths 46,560 up 5.3%

The New Coffee Room

US has a shitload of cases