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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. US has a shitload of cases

US has a shitload of cases

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  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

    It's been three days since I updated this.

    "53268.  24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
    64,767.  22% increase.  Deaths 919, up 32%
    82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
    100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
    121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
    137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
    159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
    184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
    209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
    238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."

    331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.

    (calculated a compound daily average growth rate)

    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #6

    @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

    "53268.  24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
    64,767.  22% increase.  Deaths 919, up 32%
    82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
    100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
    121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
    137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
    159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
    184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
    209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
    238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
    331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.

    364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

    Good trend on both fronts. At least 2nd deriv

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
    • markM Offline
      markM Offline
      mark
      wrote on last edited by
      #7

      Politicans should just keep their fucking mouths shut about this stuff. Let the data and experts speak.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

        "53268.  24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
        64,767.  22% increase.  Deaths 919, up 32%
        82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
        100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
        121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
        137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
        159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
        184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.

        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

        Good trend on both fronts. At least 2nd deriv

        jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nyc
        wrote on last edited by
        #8

        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

        82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
        100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
        121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
        137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
        159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
        184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

        Only non-witches get due process.

        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
        jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
        • LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins Dad
          wrote on last edited by
          #9

          7 day doubling

          The Brad

          1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

            @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

            82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
            100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
            121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
            137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
            159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
            184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
            209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
            238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
            331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
            364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

            386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

            jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by
            #10

            @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

            100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
            121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
            137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
            159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
            184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
            209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
            238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
            331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
            364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
            386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

            423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

              @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

              100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
              121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
              137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
              159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
              184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
              209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
              238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
              331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
              364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
              386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

              423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

              jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nyc
              wrote on last edited by
              #11

              @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

              137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
              159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
              184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
              209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
              238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
              331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
              364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
              386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
              423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

              454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

              Only non-witches get due process.

              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
              jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

                454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

                jon-nycJ Online
                jon-nycJ Online
                jon-nyc
                wrote on last edited by
                #12

                @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

                Again three days since I've updated this so I'm computing daily average gains.

                550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

                Only non-witches get due process.

                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                • KlausK Offline
                  KlausK Offline
                  Klaus
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #13

                  Second derivatives going down?

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #14

                    Yes, for sure. If bumpy along the way.

                    Only non-witches get due process.

                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                      @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                      159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                      184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                      209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                      238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                      331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                      364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                      386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                      423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                      454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

                      Again three days since I've updated this so I'm computing daily average gains.

                      550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #15

                      @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                      209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                      238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                      331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                      364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                      386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                      423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                      454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                      550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

                      577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                      Only non-witches get due process.

                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                      jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                        550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

                        577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                        jon-nycJ Online
                        jon-nycJ Online
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #16

                        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                        550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                        577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                        2 days since update.

                        632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

                        Only non-witches get due process.

                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                        jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                        • LuFins DadL Offline
                          LuFins DadL Offline
                          LuFins Dad
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #17

                          Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

                          The Brad

                          Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                          • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                            Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

                            Aqua LetiferA Offline
                            Aqua LetiferA Offline
                            Aqua Letifer
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #18

                            @LuFins-Dad said in US has a shitload of cases:

                            Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

                            Exactly. We haven't hit <1.0 yet.

                            Please love yourself.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • 89th8 Offline
                              89th8 Offline
                              89th
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #19

                              Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

                              Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                                2 days since update.

                                632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

                                jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #20

                                @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                                632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

                                658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

                                Only non-witches get due process.

                                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                • 89th8 89th

                                  Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

                                  Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                  Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                  Aqua Letifer
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #21

                                  @89th said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                  Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

                                  We are but like jon, I don't think we're ever going to get there.

                                  Please love yourself.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • jon-nycJ Online
                                    jon-nycJ Online
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #22

                                    I would love for the Tibco estimates to be true.

                                    I keep meaning to look into the calculations with more detail.

                                    The reason I'm skeptical is the study from Wuhan and the study form Imperial College re Europe. Those were deep dives (which I've yet to fully dive into myself) into estimating R0 in countries that are ahead of us and/or did a stiricter lockdown. And they we not likely there.

                                    I worry the tibco calculations are less rigorous, something arithmetically generated with each new day's data. But I don't know enough yet.

                                    Only non-witches get due process.

                                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ Online
                                      jon-nycJ Online
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #23

                                      But to answer your question 89, look here and scroll down. The site is pretty nonfunctional on mobile devices.

                                      https://demo.spotfire.cloud.tibco.com/spotfire/wp/analysis?file=/Public/COVID19 Insights&waid=P2gtdoUCWEGNNI5H79yua-1606130a13Atwl&wavid=0&options=3-0

                                      Only non-witches get due process.

                                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • 89th8 Offline
                                        89th8 Offline
                                        89th
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #24

                                        Great site. Got better as I dug into each section, thanks!

                                        @Aqua-Letifer What do you mean we're ever going to get there. I'd imagine very soon (in the next 2-3 weeks) we'll have fewer cases "today" than there were "yesterday" on a consistent basis.

                                        Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                                        • 89th8 89th

                                          Great site. Got better as I dug into each section, thanks!

                                          @Aqua-Letifer What do you mean we're ever going to get there. I'd imagine very soon (in the next 2-3 weeks) we'll have fewer cases "today" than there were "yesterday" on a consistent basis.

                                          Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                          Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                          Aqua Letifer
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #25

                                          @89th I think slightly more people will continue to get infected per day than we have recoveries per day. Would be great to be wrong about that.

                                          Please love yourself.

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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