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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
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  3. US has a shitload of cases

US has a shitload of cases

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  • L Offline
    L Offline
    Loki
    wrote on last edited by
    #2

    Do you have the trends for Florida? They fell out of the news cycle and I can only see current against an old model.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #3

      Yeah look in the ‘NYC is ground zero’ thread, I track the top states there.

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      1 Reply Last reply
      • L Offline
        L Offline
        Loki
        wrote on last edited by
        #4

        Cool. IMHE which had the best trending data and then forecast hasn’t sent an update in days. There is a story lurking there.

        Also on the one hand the media was pushing that Trump’s range was unrealistically low and then Bill Gates came out today saying it was too high. It’s becoming very awkward for media types to figure out which narrative to latch on to. They are getting whipsawed.

        Let the data speak!

        CopperC 1 Reply Last reply
        • L Loki

          Cool. IMHE which had the best trending data and then forecast hasn’t sent an update in days. There is a story lurking there.

          Also on the one hand the media was pushing that Trump’s range was unrealistically low and then Bill Gates came out today saying it was too high. It’s becoming very awkward for media types to figure out which narrative to latch on to. They are getting whipsawed.

          Let the data speak!

          CopperC Offline
          CopperC Offline
          Copper
          wrote on last edited by
          #5

          @Loki said in US has a shitload of cases:

          Let the data speak!

          Accurate data?

          You'll probably have to wait until next year for that.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

            It's been three days since I updated this.

            "53268.  24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
            64,767.  22% increase.  Deaths 919, up 32%
            82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
            100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
            121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
            137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
            159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
            184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
            209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
            238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."

            331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.

            (calculated a compound daily average growth rate)

            jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by
            #6

            @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

            "53268.  24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
            64,767.  22% increase.  Deaths 919, up 32%
            82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
            100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
            121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
            137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
            159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
            184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
            209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
            238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
            331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.

            364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

            Good trend on both fronts. At least 2nd deriv

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
            • markM Offline
              markM Offline
              mark
              wrote on last edited by
              #7

              Politicans should just keep their fucking mouths shut about this stuff. Let the data and experts speak.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                "53268.  24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
                64,767.  22% increase.  Deaths 919, up 32%
                82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
                100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
                121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
                137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.

                364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

                Good trend on both fronts. At least 2nd deriv

                jon-nycJ Online
                jon-nycJ Online
                jon-nyc
                wrote on last edited by
                #8

                @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
                100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
                121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
                137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

                386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

                Only non-witches get due process.

                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                • LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins Dad
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #9

                  7 day doubling

                  The Brad

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                    @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                    82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
                    100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
                    121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
                    137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                    159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                    184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                    209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                    238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                    331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                    364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

                    386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

                    jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #10

                    @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                    100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
                    121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
                    137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                    159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                    184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                    209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                    238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                    331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                    364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                    386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

                    423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

                    Only non-witches get due process.

                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                    jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                      @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                      100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
                      121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
                      137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                      159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                      184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                      209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                      238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                      331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                      364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                      386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

                      423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #11

                      @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                      137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                      159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                      184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                      209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                      238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                      331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                      364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                      386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                      423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

                      454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

                      Only non-witches get due process.

                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                      jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                        137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                        159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                        184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

                        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

                        jon-nycJ Online
                        jon-nycJ Online
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #12

                        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                        159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                        184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

                        Again three days since I've updated this so I'm computing daily average gains.

                        550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

                        Only non-witches get due process.

                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                        jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                        • KlausK Offline
                          KlausK Offline
                          Klaus
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #13

                          Second derivatives going down?

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • jon-nycJ Online
                            jon-nycJ Online
                            jon-nyc
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #14

                            Yes, for sure. If bumpy along the way.

                            Only non-witches get due process.

                            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                              @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                              159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                              184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                              209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                              238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                              331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                              364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                              386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                              423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                              454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

                              Again three days since I've updated this so I'm computing daily average gains.

                              550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

                              jon-nycJ Online
                              jon-nycJ Online
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #15

                              @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                              209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                              238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                              331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                              364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                              386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                              423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                              454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                              550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

                              577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                              Only non-witches get due process.

                              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                              jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

                                577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                                jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #16

                                @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                                2 days since update.

                                632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

                                Only non-witches get due process.

                                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                • LuFins DadL Offline
                                  LuFins DadL Offline
                                  LuFins Dad
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #17

                                  Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

                                  The Brad

                                  Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                    Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

                                    Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                    Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                    Aqua Letifer
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #18

                                    @LuFins-Dad said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                    Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

                                    Exactly. We haven't hit <1.0 yet.

                                    Please love yourself.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • 89th8 Offline
                                      89th8 Offline
                                      89th
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #19

                                      Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

                                      Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                        550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                        577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                                        2 days since update.

                                        632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

                                        jon-nycJ Online
                                        jon-nycJ Online
                                        jon-nyc
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #20

                                        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                        550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                        577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                                        632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

                                        658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

                                        Only non-witches get due process.

                                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                        jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                        • 89th8 89th

                                          Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

                                          Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                          Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                          Aqua Letifer
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #21

                                          @89th said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                          Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

                                          We are but like jon, I don't think we're ever going to get there.

                                          Please love yourself.

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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