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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. US has a shitload of cases

US has a shitload of cases

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  • 89th8 89th

    Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

    Aqua LetiferA Offline
    Aqua LetiferA Offline
    Aqua Letifer
    wrote on last edited by
    #21

    @89th said in US has a shitload of cases:

    Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

    We are but like jon, I don't think we're ever going to get there.

    Please love yourself.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #22

      I would love for the Tibco estimates to be true.

      I keep meaning to look into the calculations with more detail.

      The reason I'm skeptical is the study from Wuhan and the study form Imperial College re Europe. Those were deep dives (which I've yet to fully dive into myself) into estimating R0 in countries that are ahead of us and/or did a stiricter lockdown. And they we not likely there.

      I worry the tibco calculations are less rigorous, something arithmetically generated with each new day's data. But I don't know enough yet.

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nyc
        wrote on last edited by
        #23

        But to answer your question 89, look here and scroll down. The site is pretty nonfunctional on mobile devices.

        https://demo.spotfire.cloud.tibco.com/spotfire/wp/analysis?file=/Public/COVID19 Insights&waid=P2gtdoUCWEGNNI5H79yua-1606130a13Atwl&wavid=0&options=3-0

        Only non-witches get due process.

        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
        1 Reply Last reply
        • 89th8 Offline
          89th8 Offline
          89th
          wrote on last edited by
          #24

          Great site. Got better as I dug into each section, thanks!

          @Aqua-Letifer What do you mean we're ever going to get there. I'd imagine very soon (in the next 2-3 weeks) we'll have fewer cases "today" than there were "yesterday" on a consistent basis.

          Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
          • 89th8 89th

            Great site. Got better as I dug into each section, thanks!

            @Aqua-Letifer What do you mean we're ever going to get there. I'd imagine very soon (in the next 2-3 weeks) we'll have fewer cases "today" than there were "yesterday" on a consistent basis.

            Aqua LetiferA Offline
            Aqua LetiferA Offline
            Aqua Letifer
            wrote on last edited by
            #25

            @89th I think slightly more people will continue to get infected per day than we have recoveries per day. Would be great to be wrong about that.

            Please love yourself.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • 89th8 Offline
              89th8 Offline
              89th
              wrote on last edited by
              #26

              I see, sorry I haven't been following the stats as closely. I was referring to the growth factor of "new cases today < new cases yesterday", irregardless (kidding, regardless) of recoveries.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

                658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

                jon-nycJ Online
                jon-nycJ Online
                jon-nyc
                wrote on last edited by
                #27

                @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

                692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase. I'm thinking yesterday's number was wrong???

                Only non-witches get due process.

                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                  @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                  209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                  238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                  331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                  364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                  386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                  423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                  454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                  550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                  577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                  632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                  658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

                  692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase. I'm thinking yesterday's number was wrong???

                  jon-nycJ Online
                  jon-nycJ Online
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #28

                  @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                  331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                  364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                  386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                  423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                  454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                  550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                  577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                  632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                  658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
                  692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.

                  726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%

                  At what point does a flat % increase go from being mildly encouraging to mildly concerning?

                  Only non-witches get due process.

                  • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                  jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                  • LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #29

                    I’m not terribly surprised. I think my community is better than most, and I still am surprised at how cavalier some people are.

                    I commented to Aqua the other day that my biggest concern was a long drawn out stretch at 5%.

                    The Brad

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                      @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                      331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                      364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                      386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                      423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                      454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                      550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                      577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                      632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                      658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
                      692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.

                      726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%

                      At what point does a flat % increase go from being mildly encouraging to mildly concerning?

                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #30

                      @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                      364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                      386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                      423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                      454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                      550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                      577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                      632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                      658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
                      692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
                      726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%

                      755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%

                      Only non-witches get due process.

                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                      jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                        550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                        577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                        632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                        658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
                        692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
                        726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%

                        755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%

                        jon-nycJ Online
                        jon-nycJ Online
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                        #31

                        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                        550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                        577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                        632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                        658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
                        692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
                        726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
                        755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%

                        820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%

                        Only non-witches get due process.

                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                        jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                          @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                          386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                          423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                          454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                          550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                          577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                          632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                          658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
                          692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
                          726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
                          755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%

                          820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%

                          jon-nycJ Online
                          jon-nycJ Online
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #32

                          @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                          454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                          550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                          577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                          632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                          658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
                          692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
                          726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
                          755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%
                          820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%

                          846,982 3.3% increase. Deaths 46,560 up 5.3%

                          Only non-witches get due process.

                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                          jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                          • 89th8 Offline
                            89th8 Offline
                            89th
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #33

                            Slowly getting slower....... I stand by my May 1st date for passing 1,000,000. Might arrive a tad earlier, though.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ Online
                              jon-nycJ Online
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #34

                              Yeah I think it will

                              Only non-witches get due process.

                              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • AxtremusA Offline
                                AxtremusA Offline
                                Axtremus
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #35

                                The slowing rate of growth with regards to infection count ... how much of it is real and how much of it is due to testing capacity not growing fast enough to keep up with the growth in infection count?

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                  @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                  454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                  550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                  577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                                  632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                                  658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
                                  692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
                                  726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
                                  755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%
                                  820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%

                                  846,982 3.3% increase. Deaths 46,560 up 5.3%

                                  jon-nycJ Online
                                  jon-nycJ Online
                                  jon-nyc
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #36

                                  @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                  454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                  550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                  577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                                  632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                                  658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
                                  692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
                                  726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
                                  755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%
                                  820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%
                                  846,982 3.3% increase. Deaths 46,560 up 5.3%

                                  890,524, 2.5% increase. Deaths 51,017 up up 4.7%.

                                  Only non-witches get due process.

                                  • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                  jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                    @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                    454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                    550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                    577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                                    632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                                    658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
                                    692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
                                    726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
                                    755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%
                                    820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%
                                    846,982 3.3% increase. Deaths 46,560 up 5.3%

                                    890,524, 2.5% increase. Deaths 51,017 up up 4.7%.

                                    jon-nycJ Online
                                    jon-nycJ Online
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #37

                                    @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                    550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                    577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                                    632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                                    658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
                                    692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
                                    726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
                                    755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%
                                    820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%
                                    846,982 3.3% increase. Deaths 46,560 up 5.3%
                                    890,524, 2.5% increase. Deaths 51,017 up up 4.7%.

                                    963,168 4% increase. Deaths 54,530 up 3.4%.

                                    89, I think unfortunately your 1MM by may 1 will come true. That's less than 1% a day.

                                    We'll probably hit it Tuesday if not tomorrow.

                                    Only non-witches get due process.

                                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                    jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • 89th8 Offline
                                      89th8 Offline
                                      89th
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #38

                                      I'd imagine we'll see it all over the media once we cross that number. I still remember when we had less than 2,000 cases and I made the "we'll have a million cases by may" comment to my coworker who was completely shocked by such a claim. 😞

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • 89th8 Offline
                                        89th8 Offline
                                        89th
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #39

                                        Passed 1,000,000 today

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                          @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                          550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                          577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                                          632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                                          658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
                                          692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
                                          726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
                                          755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%
                                          820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%
                                          846,982 3.3% increase. Deaths 46,560 up 5.3%
                                          890,524, 2.5% increase. Deaths 51,017 up up 4.7%.

                                          963,168 4% increase. Deaths 54,530 up 3.4%.

                                          89, I think unfortunately your 1MM by may 1 will come true. That's less than 1% a day.

                                          We'll probably hit it Tuesday if not tomorrow.

                                          jon-nycJ Online
                                          jon-nycJ Online
                                          jon-nyc
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #40

                                          Yes we did.

                                          @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                          632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                                          658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
                                          692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
                                          726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
                                          755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%
                                          820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%
                                          846,982 3.3% increase. Deaths 46,560 up 5.3%
                                          890,524, 2.5% increase. Deaths 51,017 up up 4.7%.
                                          963,168 4% increase. Deaths 54,530 up 3.4%.

                                          1,010,717. 2.4% increase. Deaths 58,365 up 3.5%

                                          Only non-witches get due process.

                                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                          jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
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