Skip to content
  • Categories
  • Recent
  • Tags
  • Popular
  • Users
  • Groups
Skins
  • Light
  • Cerulean
  • Cosmo
  • Flatly
  • Journal
  • Litera
  • Lumen
  • Lux
  • Materia
  • Minty
  • Morph
  • Pulse
  • Sandstone
  • Simplex
  • Sketchy
  • Spacelab
  • United
  • Yeti
  • Zephyr
  • Dark
  • Cyborg
  • Darkly
  • Quartz
  • Slate
  • Solar
  • Superhero
  • Vapor

  • Default (No Skin)
  • No Skin
Collapse

The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. US has a shitload of cases

US has a shitload of cases

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
159 Posts 16 Posters 5.5k Views
  • Oldest to Newest
  • Newest to Oldest
  • Most Votes
Reply
  • Reply as topic
Log in to reply
This topic has been deleted. Only users with topic management privileges can see it.
  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

    @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

    82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
    100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
    121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
    137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
    159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
    184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
    209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
    238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
    331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
    364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

    386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #10

    @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

    100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
    121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
    137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
    159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
    184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
    209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
    238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
    331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
    364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
    386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

    423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

      @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

      100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
      121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
      137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
      159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
      184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
      209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
      238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
      331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
      364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
      386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

      423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

      jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #11

      @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

      137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
      159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
      184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
      209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
      238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
      331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
      364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
      386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
      423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

      454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

        137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
        159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
        184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

        jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nyc
        wrote on last edited by
        #12

        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

        159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
        184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

        Again three days since I've updated this so I'm computing daily average gains.

        550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

        Only non-witches get due process.

        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
        jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
        • KlausK Offline
          KlausK Offline
          Klaus
          wrote on last edited by
          #13

          Second derivatives going down?

          1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by
            #14

            Yes, for sure. If bumpy along the way.

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

              @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

              159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
              184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
              209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
              238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
              331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
              364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
              386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
              423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
              454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

              Again three days since I've updated this so I'm computing daily average gains.

              550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

              jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nyc
              wrote on last edited by
              #15

              @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

              209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
              238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
              331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
              364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
              386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
              423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
              454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
              550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

              577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

              Only non-witches get due process.

              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
              jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

                577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                jon-nycJ Online
                jon-nycJ Online
                jon-nyc
                wrote on last edited by
                #16

                @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                2 days since update.

                632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

                Only non-witches get due process.

                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                • LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins Dad
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #17

                  Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

                  The Brad

                  Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                    Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

                    Aqua LetiferA Offline
                    Aqua LetiferA Offline
                    Aqua Letifer
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #18

                    @LuFins-Dad said in US has a shitload of cases:

                    Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

                    Exactly. We haven't hit <1.0 yet.

                    Please love yourself.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • 89th8 Offline
                      89th8 Offline
                      89th
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #19

                      Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

                      Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                        550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                        577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                        2 days since update.

                        632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

                        jon-nycJ Online
                        jon-nycJ Online
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #20

                        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                        550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                        577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                        632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

                        658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

                        Only non-witches get due process.

                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                        jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                        • 89th8 89th

                          Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

                          Aqua LetiferA Offline
                          Aqua LetiferA Offline
                          Aqua Letifer
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #21

                          @89th said in US has a shitload of cases:

                          Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

                          We are but like jon, I don't think we're ever going to get there.

                          Please love yourself.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • jon-nycJ Online
                            jon-nycJ Online
                            jon-nyc
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #22

                            I would love for the Tibco estimates to be true.

                            I keep meaning to look into the calculations with more detail.

                            The reason I'm skeptical is the study from Wuhan and the study form Imperial College re Europe. Those were deep dives (which I've yet to fully dive into myself) into estimating R0 in countries that are ahead of us and/or did a stiricter lockdown. And they we not likely there.

                            I worry the tibco calculations are less rigorous, something arithmetically generated with each new day's data. But I don't know enough yet.

                            Only non-witches get due process.

                            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ Online
                              jon-nycJ Online
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #23

                              But to answer your question 89, look here and scroll down. The site is pretty nonfunctional on mobile devices.

                              https://demo.spotfire.cloud.tibco.com/spotfire/wp/analysis?file=/Public/COVID19 Insights&waid=P2gtdoUCWEGNNI5H79yua-1606130a13Atwl&wavid=0&options=3-0

                              Only non-witches get due process.

                              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • 89th8 Offline
                                89th8 Offline
                                89th
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #24

                                Great site. Got better as I dug into each section, thanks!

                                @Aqua-Letifer What do you mean we're ever going to get there. I'd imagine very soon (in the next 2-3 weeks) we'll have fewer cases "today" than there were "yesterday" on a consistent basis.

                                Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                                • 89th8 89th

                                  Great site. Got better as I dug into each section, thanks!

                                  @Aqua-Letifer What do you mean we're ever going to get there. I'd imagine very soon (in the next 2-3 weeks) we'll have fewer cases "today" than there were "yesterday" on a consistent basis.

                                  Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                  Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                  Aqua Letifer
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #25

                                  @89th I think slightly more people will continue to get infected per day than we have recoveries per day. Would be great to be wrong about that.

                                  Please love yourself.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • 89th8 Offline
                                    89th8 Offline
                                    89th
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #26

                                    I see, sorry I haven't been following the stats as closely. I was referring to the growth factor of "new cases today < new cases yesterday", irregardless (kidding, regardless) of recoveries.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                      @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                      209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                      238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                      331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                      364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                      386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                      423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                      454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                      550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                      577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                                      632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

                                      658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

                                      jon-nycJ Online
                                      jon-nycJ Online
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #27

                                      @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                      209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                      238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                      331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                      364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                      386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                      423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                      454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                      550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                      577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                                      632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                                      658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

                                      692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase. I'm thinking yesterday's number was wrong???

                                      Only non-witches get due process.

                                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                      jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                        550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                        577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                                        632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                                        658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

                                        692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase. I'm thinking yesterday's number was wrong???

                                        jon-nycJ Online
                                        jon-nycJ Online
                                        jon-nyc
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #28

                                        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                        550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                        577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                                        632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
                                        658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
                                        692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.

                                        726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%

                                        At what point does a flat % increase go from being mildly encouraging to mildly concerning?

                                        Only non-witches get due process.

                                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                        jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                        • LuFins DadL Offline
                                          LuFins DadL Offline
                                          LuFins Dad
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #29

                                          I’m not terribly surprised. I think my community is better than most, and I still am surprised at how cavalier some people are.

                                          I commented to Aqua the other day that my biggest concern was a long drawn out stretch at 5%.

                                          The Brad

                                          1 Reply Last reply
                                          Reply
                                          • Reply as topic
                                          Log in to reply
                                          • Oldest to Newest
                                          • Newest to Oldest
                                          • Most Votes


                                          • Login

                                          • Don't have an account? Register

                                          • Login or register to search.
                                          • First post
                                            Last post
                                          0
                                          • Categories
                                          • Recent
                                          • Tags
                                          • Popular
                                          • Users
                                          • Groups