US has a shitload of cases

[LuFins Dad]

Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

[Aqua Letifer]

@LuFins-Dad said in US has a shitload of cases:

Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

Exactly. We haven't hit <1.0 yet.

[89th]

Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

[Aqua Letifer]

@89th said in US has a shitload of cases:

Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

We are but like jon, I don't think we're ever going to get there.

[jon-nyc]

I would love for the Tibco estimates to be true.

I keep meaning to look into the calculations with more detail.

The reason I'm skeptical is the study from Wuhan and the study form Imperial College re Europe. Those were deep dives (which I've yet to fully dive into myself) into estimating R0 in countries that are ahead of us and/or did a stiricter lockdown. And they we not likely there.

I worry the tibco calculations are less rigorous, something arithmetically generated with each new day's data. But I don't know enough yet.

[jon-nyc]

But to answer your question 89, look here and scroll down. The site is pretty nonfunctional on mobile devices.

https://demo.spotfire.cloud.tibco.com/spotfire/wp/analysis?file=/Public/COVID19 Insights&waid=P2gtdoUCWEGNNI5H79yua-1606130a13Atwl&wavid=0&options=3-0

[89th]

Great site. Got better as I dug into each section, thanks!

@Aqua-Letifer What do you mean we're ever going to get there. I'd imagine very soon (in the next 2-3 weeks) we'll have fewer cases "today" than there were "yesterday" on a consistent basis.

[Aqua Letifer]

@89th I think slightly more people will continue to get infected per day than we have recoveries per day. Would be great to be wrong about that.

[89th]

I see, sorry I haven't been following the stats as closely. I was referring to the growth factor of "new cases today < new cases yesterday", irregardless (kidding, regardless) of recoveries.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase. I'm thinking yesterday's number was wrong???

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.

726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%

At what point does a flat % increase go from being mildly encouraging to mildly concerning?

[LuFins Dad]

I’m not terribly surprised. I think my community is better than most, and I still am surprised at how cavalier some people are.

I commented to Aqua the other day that my biggest concern was a long drawn out stretch at 5%.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%

755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%

820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%
820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%

846,982 3.3% increase. Deaths 46,560 up 5.3%

[89th]

Slowly getting slower....... I stand by my May 1st date for passing 1,000,000. Might arrive a tad earlier, though.

[jon-nyc]

Yeah I think it will

[Axtremus]

The slowing rate of growth with regards to infection count ... how much of it is real and how much of it is due to testing capacity not growing fast enough to keep up with the growth in infection count?

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%
820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%
846,982 3.3% increase. Deaths 46,560 up 5.3%

890,524, 2.5% increase. Deaths 51,017 up up 4.7%.