The Iran Nuclear Program thread
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I just don’t think we will enter the fray. The only thing we can add is the MOPs and there’s no guarantee they can put Fordo out of business, plus it would spread radiation over the region. If that facility is to be shut down it will have to be by cutting off their power supply, destroying the tunnel access and possibly in combination with a ground assault.
And don’t forget, every day is Taco Tuesday. If our ordinance failed it would destroy his presidency. I don’t believe he would risk that.
Our biggest threat here is overreach based on the Israeli successes. The mullahs have had their world rocked. At the very least their adventurism will be greatly chastened even if the regime manages to stay in power. We especially need to stay out of the regime change business. It’s what got us 45 years of Iran as we know it.
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Last night I said If our ordinance failed it would destroy his presidency. Upon reflection I think if we were successful, the resulting radiation spewed would do that same thing. We cannot win here by getting involved. .
"The intelligent man who is proud of his intelligence is like the condemned man who is proud of his large cell." Simone Weil
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Last night I said If our ordinance failed it would destroy his presidency. Upon reflection I think if we were successful, the resulting radiation spewed would do that same thing. We cannot win here by getting involved. .
@Mik said in The Iran Nuclear Program thread:
Last night I said If our ordinance failed it would destroy his presidency. Upon reflection I think if we were successful, the resulting radiation spewed would do that same thing. We cannot win here by getting involved. .
I’m not sure that would be the case. Fordow is buried so deeply that I would think the MOP would likely result in the facility collapsing in on itself trapping the uranium, not blasting it outward.
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Alternatively ought we let Iran carry on, see them develop portable nuclear packs, which they will give to their proxy fanatical terrorist friends.
When does this whole scenario become the invasion of Poland, the attack on Pearl Harbour for us?
For the Israelis October 7th was that line.
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The exact size of the military presence at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant is not publicly known, but based on defense analyses and satellite imagery, experts estimate:
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Estimated Military Presence at Fordow
Permanent On-Site Security
• Likely 200–400 IRGC personnel, including:
• Facility guards
• Technical security teams
• Command staff and rapid response elementsThese forces are probably drawn from the IRGC Quds and Aerospace forces, with access tightly controlled.
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Perimeter & Area Security
• Additional 500–1,000 troops may be stationed at nearby IRGC bases that provide regional security for Fordow and Qom
• Likely include:
• Motorized infantry
• Air defense crews
• Logistics and support units⸻
Air Defense Units
• Fordow is protected by dedicated air defense batteries:
• S-300PMU-2 system (mobile or semi-permanent)
• Iranian equivalents (e.g., Bavar-373, Khordad-15)
• These systems require dozens to hundreds of personnel to operate, maintain, and coordinate radar and missile systems⸻
Total Military Footprint (Broad Estimate)
Component
Estimated Personnel
On-site security: 200–400
Regional IRGC presence: 500–1,000
Air defense teams: 100–300
Total: 800–1,700 (approx.) -
