The Iran Nuclear Program thread

[LuFins Dad]

@Mik said in The Iran Nuclear Program thread:

Last night I said If our ordinance failed it would destroy his presidency. Upon reflection I think if we were successful, the resulting radiation spewed would do that same thing. We cannot win here by getting involved. .

I’m not sure that would be the case. Fordow is buried so deeply that I would think the MOP would likely result in the facility collapsing in on itself trapping the uranium, not blasting it outward.

[jon-nyc]

Seems to me that the commando raid, blow it up from inside would be safer. But I really don't give a shit if Qom becomes uninhabitable for a few thousand years.

[Mik]

The international outcry about that would last even longer.

[jon-nyc]

Yeah I'm being flip when I say I don't care.

[AndyD]

Alternatively ought we let Iran carry on, see them develop portable nuclear packs, which they will give to their proxy fanatical terrorist friends.

When does this whole scenario become the invasion of Poland, the attack on Pearl Harbour for us?

For the Israelis October 7th was that line.

[jon-nyc]

The exact size of the military presence at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant is not publicly known, but based on defense analyses and satellite imagery, experts estimate:

⸻

Estimated Military Presence at Fordow

Permanent On-Site Security
• Likely 200–400 IRGC personnel, including:
• Facility guards
• Technical security teams
• Command staff and rapid response elements

These forces are probably drawn from the IRGC Quds and Aerospace forces, with access tightly controlled.

⸻

Perimeter & Area Security
• Additional 500–1,000 troops may be stationed at nearby IRGC bases that provide regional security for Fordow and Qom
• Likely include:
• Motorized infantry
• Air defense crews
• Logistics and support units

⸻

Air Defense Units
• Fordow is protected by dedicated air defense batteries:
• S-300PMU-2 system (mobile or semi-permanent)
• Iranian equivalents (e.g., Bavar-373, Khordad-15)
• These systems require dozens to hundreds of personnel to operate, maintain, and coordinate radar and missile systems

⸻

Total Military Footprint (Broad Estimate)
Component
Estimated Personnel
On-site security: 200–400
Regional IRGC presence: 500–1,000
Air defense teams: 100–300
Total: 800–1,700 (approx.)

[jon-nyc]

Whatever the normal staffing I’d imagine it’s a lot more this week.

[Horace]

I'm surprised they haven't opened a day care and a hospital on the ground floor.

[bachophile]

Negotiaters? Defectors? VIPs looking for a safe quiet weekend?

[jon-nyc]

I was thinking this morning that it was weird that the WH leaked that there was going to be a statement from Trump last night, but ultimately there wasn't.

But then I remembered yesterday was Tuesday....

[jon-nyc]

[jon-nyc]

I just hope they weren't carrying weapons-grade uranium.

[Mik]

Yes. That's the nightmare. And consistent with Iran's recent rhetoric.

[bachophile]

Alert from home front. Incoming….

[jon-nyc]

Luke Skywalker to the rescue?

[jon-nyc]

Hey @bachophile - what do you do if you’re in surgery and one of these alerts comes in? Just hope for the best?

[bachophile]

Intercepted. Definitely see much less missiles since the first two nights. I guess the hunting expeditions are working.

[jon-nyc]

Fewer.

/AquaLetifer

[bachophile]

@jon-nyc great question

My hospital (Sheba ) has 10 ORs underground for emergencies. So we just keep on working. Sometimes we don’t even know there are alerts until they are over.

[bachophile]

@jon-nyc yup. My grammar sucks.