The Atlantic released an article yesterday morning about how Trump's aides said he's going to announce his support for Cornyn and ask (Paxton) to drop out. Until then the thought (and my Kalshi bet!) was that Paxton would win in a run-off since he'd suck up most of the 3rd candidate (Hunt)'s voters.
Paxton is like Trump... scandals, impeached I think, maybe a felony or two, election sore loser and fraud believer... if Paxton were to beat Cornyn in the runoff, there's a higher chance the democrat Talarico could win, so the GOP would have to spend even more to win the seat, vs a cheaper and better odds win if it's Cornyn. Trump doesn't like to align with losers... at least not on purpose.