NYC is ground zero

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYC - 87,028 - 6.4%
NJ - 51,027
MI - 21.504
Nassau - 20,140
CA - 19,131
PA - 18,300 - 10%
LA - 18,283
Suffolk - 17,413
Westchester - 17,004 - 7%
MA - 16,790
FL - 16,364
IL - 15,078

Not updated in 3 days, but I'm computing daily averages.

NYC - 103,208 - 5.8%
NJ - 61,850
MI - 24,028
Nassau - 23, 553
PA - 22,938
MA - 22,860 - 10.8% daily ave growth
CA 22,439
Suffolk - 20,934
IL - 20,848 - 11.4% daily average growth
LA - 20,595
FL - 19,347
Westchester - 19,313 - 4.3%

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYC - 103,208 - 5.8%
NJ - 61,850
MI - 24,028
Nassau - 23, 553
PA - 22,938
MA - 22,860 - 10.8% daily ave growth
CA 22,439
Suffolk - 20,934
IL - 20,848 - 11.4% daily average growth
LA - 20,595
FL - 19,347
Westchester - 19,313 - 4.3%

NYC - 106,763 - 3.5%
NJ -64,584
MA - 26,793 - 17% growth
Nassau - 24,358
PA - 24,292
MI - 24,244 - seems like it's not fully updated. 16 more cases than yesterday?
CA - 23,585
IL - 22,024
Suffolk - 21,643
LA - 21,016
FL - 20,601
Westchester - 19,786 up 2.5%

[LuFins Dad]

Louisiana has calmed way the hell down,

[Doctor Phibes]

It looks like we're (MA) spiking now.

[LuFins Dad]

Which seems odd.

[jon-nyc]

I've really only paid close attention to NY numbers.

But in my peripheral vision noting these other states, sometimes I see the numbers jump around in fits and starts. Could be uneven testing, could be the frequency with which JH updates their data. Or something else.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYC - 106,763 - 3.5%
NJ -64,584
MA - 26,793 - 17% growth
Nassau - 24,358
PA - 24,292
MI - 24,244 - seems like it's not fully updated. 16 more cases than yesterday?
CA - 23,585
IL - 22,024
Suffolk - 21,643
LA - 21,016
FL - 20,601
Westchester - 19,786 up 2.5%

NYC - 118,302 - up 5.2% daily
NJ - 71,030
MA - 29,852
MI - 28,059
PA - 26,753
Nassau - 26,715
CA - 26,666
Suffolk - 23,278
IL - 23,248
FL - 22,511
LA - 21,951
Westchester - 20,947 up 3%
Cook - 16,323
Texas 15,687

Cook County would be in 10th place if it were a state (consolidating all NY).

[LuFins Dad]

Seriously, what happened to slow down Florida and Louisiana?

[jon-nyc]

Same thing that happened everywhere else. the virus turned 40 days old, got bored, and slowed down Social distancing has its intended effect.

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

Same thing that happened everywhere else. the virus turned 40 days old, got bored, and slowed down

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

Same thing that happened everywhere else. the virus turned 40 days old, got bored, and slowed down Social distancing has its intended effect.

Read about my experience at WallyWorld.

Social distancing? I say "hah!" to your face...

[jon-nyc]

I read it, and I get it. But ‘social distancing’ isn’t a binary metric set either to 1 or 0.

Schools closed? Check. Universities? Check. Concerts canceled? Check. Sporting events canceled? Check. Etc. etc.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

Same thing that happened everywhere else. the virus turned 40 days old, got bored, and slowed down Social distancing has its intended effect.

But Florida was much later in instituting social distancing measures, both privately and by government mandate. So was South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and South Dakota. All were roundly criticized for not taking action earlier, yet all have been showing significant declines in viral growth well before they should. In fact, except for South Dakota, they are all at the same ~5% rate of increase as those states that locked down hard and early. We shouldn’t see them at these numbers for another 2 weeks, but here they are.

[jon-nyc]

I don't know, we'd have to look in detail at each state to see when they formally closed things and when things started effectively closing from the bottom up.

I think besides the famous outliers like GA, if you look back there wasn't a huge difference in when states closed a lot of things. The vast majority of states closed schools the week of March 16-20, for example, including all the ones you mention.

But it would require some real analysis to look into it. And real data.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYC - 118,302 - up 5.2% daily
NJ - 71,030
MA - 29,852
MI - 28,059
PA - 26,753
Nassau - 26,715
CA - 26,666
Suffolk - 23,278
IL - 23,248
FL - 22,511
LA - 21,951
Westchester - 20,947 up 3%
Cook - 16,323
Texas 15,687

NYC - 123,146 up 4%
NJ - 75,312
MA - 32,181
PA - 28,258
Nassau - 27,772
CA - 27,618
IL - 25,734 - up 10.7%
Suffolk - 24,812
FL - 22,897
MI - 22,651 - wait this is bad data? 5k less than yesterday. Not sure what's up.
LA - 22,532
Westchester - 21,828 - up 4.2%
Cook - 18,087 - up 10.8%
TX - 16,553

So IL and Cook county are the only entities up more than 10%

(for those who don't know, Cook County is where Chicago is)

[jon-nyc]

I don’t like this. Just eyeballing this it seems N.Y. is still pretty testing constrained. Lite new case days are invariably lite testing days.

Yesterday was our record test day and record new cases.

The curve is bending, but (again eyeballing) it looks like with consistent testing we’d see slow growth in new cases.

[Aqua Letifer]

My BIL is being held in a hospital in NY right now. One doc is pretty convinced he has it, another isn't.

They're keeping him there, but he can't get a test.

[Jolly]

@Aqua-Letifer said in NYC is ground zero:

My BIL is being held in a hospital in NY right now. One doc is pretty convinced he has it, another isn't.

They're keeping him there, but he can't get a test.

Here's hoping he doesn't have it.

[brenda]

@Aqua-Letifer said in NYC is ground zero:

My BIL is being held in a hospital in NY right now. One doc is pretty convinced he has it, another isn't.

They're keeping him there, but he can't get a test.

How serious are his current symptoms? Must be enough to make him seek medical help. Best wishes to him, and let's hope he's not positive.

[Aqua Letifer]

@brenda said in NYC is ground zero:

@Aqua-Letifer said in NYC is ground zero:

My BIL is being held in a hospital in NY right now. One doc is pretty convinced he has it, another isn't.

They're keeping him there, but he can't get a test.

How serious are his current symptoms? Must be enough to make him seek medical help. Best wishes to him, and let's hope he's not positive.

His symptoms aren't too bad; kinda feverish, that's about it. My biggest worry is his wife, who has health issues, and his 1-year-old at home. I just don't know if they understand the severity of this, and what can happen if they get infected. They're kind of acting like business as usual, which is troubling.

Anyway, no updates yet; we'll see what happens.