NYC is ground zero

[Axtremus]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html

Genome study says most New York cases of COVID-19 came from Europe.

[Jolly]

And where did the European cases come from?

[Copper]

@Rainman said in NYC is ground zero:

The feds cannot demand, but they could ask each state for standardization of input.

I used to collect and report this data - 40+ years ago

Where does the time go?

I assume systems have changed since then

https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/data-collection.html

@cdc said in [Notifiable Disease Surveillance Starts at State and Local Levels]

Notifiable Disease Surveillance Starts at State and Local Levels

CDC receives case notifications from 57 reporting jurisdictions. Each state has laws requiring certain diseases be reported at the state level, but it is voluntary for states to provide information or notifications to CDC at the federal level. The notifiable diseases data voluntarily shared by these 57 jurisdictions represents only a portion of the public health surveillance data that jurisdictions collect and use to make decisions and conduct public health activities in their communities (e.g., outbreak detection and control). There are several important distinctions between a reportable disease and a notifiable disease.

It is mandatory that reportable disease cases be reported to state and territorial jurisdictions when identified by a health provider, hospital, or laboratory. This type of required reporting uses personal identifiers and enables the states to identify cases where immediate disease control and prevention is needed. Each state has its own laws and regulations defining what diseases are reportable. The list of reportable diseases varies among states and over time.
It is voluntary that notifiable disease cases be reported to CDC by state and territorial jurisdictions (without direct personal identifiers) for nationwide aggregation and monitoring of disease data. Regular, frequent, timely information on individual cases is considered necessary to monitor disease trends, identify populations or geographic areas at high risk, formulate and assess prevention and control strategies, and formulate public health policies. The list of notifiable diseases varies over time and by state. The list of national notifiable diseases is reviewed and modified annually by the CSTE and CDC. Every national notifiable disease is not necessarily reportable in each state. In addition, not every state reportable condition is national notifiable.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYC - 81,803 - 6%
NJ - 47,437
MI - 20,346
Nassau - 18.548 - 12%
CA - 17,803
LA - 17,030
Suffolk - 17,008 - 17%
PA - 16,631 - 12%
Westchester - 15,887 - 7%
FL - 15,202

Again, no %age means <10%

NYC - 87,028 - 6.4%
NJ - 51,027
MI - 21.504
Nassau - 20,140
CA - 19,131
PA - 18,300 - 10%
LA - 18,283
Suffolk - 17,413
Westchester - 17,004 - 7%
MA - 16,790
FL - 16,364
IL - 15,078

NYC more than China (claimed) cases now. PA is the only state up 10%

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYC - 87,028 - 6.4%
NJ - 51,027
MI - 21.504
Nassau - 20,140
CA - 19,131
PA - 18,300 - 10%
LA - 18,283
Suffolk - 17,413
Westchester - 17,004 - 7%
MA - 16,790
FL - 16,364
IL - 15,078

Not updated in 3 days, but I'm computing daily averages.

NYC - 103,208 - 5.8%
NJ - 61,850
MI - 24,028
Nassau - 23, 553
PA - 22,938
MA - 22,860 - 10.8% daily ave growth
CA 22,439
Suffolk - 20,934
IL - 20,848 - 11.4% daily average growth
LA - 20,595
FL - 19,347
Westchester - 19,313 - 4.3%

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYC - 103,208 - 5.8%
NJ - 61,850
MI - 24,028
Nassau - 23, 553
PA - 22,938
MA - 22,860 - 10.8% daily ave growth
CA 22,439
Suffolk - 20,934
IL - 20,848 - 11.4% daily average growth
LA - 20,595
FL - 19,347
Westchester - 19,313 - 4.3%

NYC - 106,763 - 3.5%
NJ -64,584
MA - 26,793 - 17% growth
Nassau - 24,358
PA - 24,292
MI - 24,244 - seems like it's not fully updated. 16 more cases than yesterday?
CA - 23,585
IL - 22,024
Suffolk - 21,643
LA - 21,016
FL - 20,601
Westchester - 19,786 up 2.5%

[LuFins Dad]

Louisiana has calmed way the hell down,

[Doctor Phibes]

It looks like we're (MA) spiking now.

[LuFins Dad]

Which seems odd.

[jon-nyc]

I've really only paid close attention to NY numbers.

But in my peripheral vision noting these other states, sometimes I see the numbers jump around in fits and starts. Could be uneven testing, could be the frequency with which JH updates their data. Or something else.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYC - 106,763 - 3.5%
NJ -64,584
MA - 26,793 - 17% growth
Nassau - 24,358
PA - 24,292
MI - 24,244 - seems like it's not fully updated. 16 more cases than yesterday?
CA - 23,585
IL - 22,024
Suffolk - 21,643
LA - 21,016
FL - 20,601
Westchester - 19,786 up 2.5%

NYC - 118,302 - up 5.2% daily
NJ - 71,030
MA - 29,852
MI - 28,059
PA - 26,753
Nassau - 26,715
CA - 26,666
Suffolk - 23,278
IL - 23,248
FL - 22,511
LA - 21,951
Westchester - 20,947 up 3%
Cook - 16,323
Texas 15,687

Cook County would be in 10th place if it were a state (consolidating all NY).

[LuFins Dad]

Seriously, what happened to slow down Florida and Louisiana?

[jon-nyc]

Same thing that happened everywhere else. the virus turned 40 days old, got bored, and slowed down Social distancing has its intended effect.

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

Same thing that happened everywhere else. the virus turned 40 days old, got bored, and slowed down

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

Same thing that happened everywhere else. the virus turned 40 days old, got bored, and slowed down Social distancing has its intended effect.

Read about my experience at WallyWorld.

Social distancing? I say "hah!" to your face...

[jon-nyc]

I read it, and I get it. But ‘social distancing’ isn’t a binary metric set either to 1 or 0.

Schools closed? Check. Universities? Check. Concerts canceled? Check. Sporting events canceled? Check. Etc. etc.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

Same thing that happened everywhere else. the virus turned 40 days old, got bored, and slowed down Social distancing has its intended effect.

But Florida was much later in instituting social distancing measures, both privately and by government mandate. So was South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and South Dakota. All were roundly criticized for not taking action earlier, yet all have been showing significant declines in viral growth well before they should. In fact, except for South Dakota, they are all at the same ~5% rate of increase as those states that locked down hard and early. We shouldn’t see them at these numbers for another 2 weeks, but here they are.

[jon-nyc]

I don't know, we'd have to look in detail at each state to see when they formally closed things and when things started effectively closing from the bottom up.

I think besides the famous outliers like GA, if you look back there wasn't a huge difference in when states closed a lot of things. The vast majority of states closed schools the week of March 16-20, for example, including all the ones you mention.

But it would require some real analysis to look into it. And real data.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYC - 118,302 - up 5.2% daily
NJ - 71,030
MA - 29,852
MI - 28,059
PA - 26,753
Nassau - 26,715
CA - 26,666
Suffolk - 23,278
IL - 23,248
FL - 22,511
LA - 21,951
Westchester - 20,947 up 3%
Cook - 16,323
Texas 15,687

NYC - 123,146 up 4%
NJ - 75,312
MA - 32,181
PA - 28,258
Nassau - 27,772
CA - 27,618
IL - 25,734 - up 10.7%
Suffolk - 24,812
FL - 22,897
MI - 22,651 - wait this is bad data? 5k less than yesterday. Not sure what's up.
LA - 22,532
Westchester - 21,828 - up 4.2%
Cook - 18,087 - up 10.8%
TX - 16,553

So IL and Cook county are the only entities up more than 10%

(for those who don't know, Cook County is where Chicago is)

[jon-nyc]

I don’t like this. Just eyeballing this it seems N.Y. is still pretty testing constrained. Lite new case days are invariably lite testing days.

Yesterday was our record test day and record new cases.

The curve is bending, but (again eyeballing) it looks like with consistent testing we’d see slow growth in new cases.