Calling the States
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@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.
A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.
More shocking about Trump. Can’t believe he was muzzled.
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Now it's 70%.
@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
Where are you seeing that?
If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight
Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.
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Oh, that's not a probability, it's a vote count.
The reporting of results happens by precinct (mini-district). So it's hard to tell what it means unless you know which districts have reported their results.
Imagine 3% reporting in Pennsylvania. Is it from a rural area in the middle of the state? Or from a black neighborhood in Philly? The two will give you lopsided opposite answers.
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Some of the more professional news organizations have detailed information about each district and how it is expected to vote, based on demographics, polling, and voting history.
Armed with that info, they can make intelligent guesses about how the whole state is trending based on how the actual results of a few districts compare to their expectations.
Thats how these states get 'called' early, and how those 'probability needles' work.
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@Klaus said in Calling the States:
So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!
I'm still up.
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@Klaus said in Calling the States:
The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?
Candidates can gum up the works by demanding a recount.
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I’ve been up since 5 am
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@Klaus said in Calling the States:
Here's one thing I don't understand.
Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?
The prime example is Gore in 2000. After he called to concede to Bush, and later Florida returned to “too close to call”, at that point it made Gore look like a whining loser as opposed to if he had not conceded, the resulting county by county recount would’ve looked more objective. Ultimately Bush won because the courts told Gore’s team basically to stop cherry picking which (dem leaning) counties to recount.
