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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Calling the States

Calling the States

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  • K Offline
    K Offline
    Klaus
    wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:23 last edited by
    #81

    What’s the matter with those odd 80% Trump in Nevada? I thought this was a battle state?

    1 Reply Last reply
    • J Offline
      J Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:25 last edited by
      #82

      Where are you seeing that?

      If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight

      Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      K 1 Reply Last reply 4 Nov 2020, 05:43
      • J Offline
        J Offline
        jon-nyc
        wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:30 last edited by
        #83

        Minesoooota.

        Screen Shot 2020-11-04 at 12.30.31 AM.png

        Only non-witches get due process.

        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
        1 Reply Last reply
        • L Offline
          L Offline
          Larry
          wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:32 last edited by
          #84

          This isn't the first time Philadelphia has tried to steal an election.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • J Offline
            J Offline
            jon-nyc
            wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:32 last edited by
            #85

            Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.

            A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            L 1 Reply Last reply 4 Nov 2020, 05:34
            • J jon-nyc
              4 Nov 2020, 05:32

              Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.

              A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.

              L Offline
              L Offline
              Loki
              wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:34 last edited by
              #86

              @jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

              Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.

              A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.

              More shocking about Trump. Can’t believe he was muzzled.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • L Offline
                L Offline
                Loki
                wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:35 last edited by
                #87

                I m seeing the senate stays GOP? Is that consensus?

                1 Reply Last reply
                • J Offline
                  J Offline
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:35 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:36
                  #88

                  What the NYT is saying about its GA shift:

                  (the 3 states it is referring to are GA, FL, NC. All night they were predicting Trump all 3, now they've switched GA)

                  Screen Shot 2020-11-04 at 12.34.38 AM.png

                  Only non-witches get due process.

                  • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • J jon-nyc
                    4 Nov 2020, 05:25

                    Where are you seeing that?

                    If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight

                    Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.

                    K Offline
                    K Offline
                    Klaus
                    wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:43 last edited by
                    #89

                    Now it's 70%.

                    81614e90-13a2-427a-b144-65b025bbda2f-image.png

                    @jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

                    Where are you seeing that?

                    If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight

                    Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • J Offline
                      J Offline
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:46 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:48
                      #90

                      Oh, that's not a probability, it's a vote count.

                      The reporting of results happens by precinct (mini-district). So it's hard to tell what it means unless you know which districts have reported their results.

                      Imagine 3% reporting in Pennsylvania. Is it from a rural area in the middle of the state? Or from a black neighborhood in Philly? The two will give you lopsided opposite answers.

                      Only non-witches get due process.

                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • J Offline
                        J Offline
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:51 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:53
                        #91

                        Some of the more professional news organizations have detailed information about each district and how it is expected to vote, based on demographics, polling, and voting history.

                        Armed with that info, they can make intelligent guesses about how the whole state is trending based on how the actual results of a few districts compare to their expectations.

                        Thats how these states get 'called' early, and how those 'probability needles' work.

                        Only non-witches get due process.

                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • J Offline
                          J Offline
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 06:00 last edited by
                          #92

                          Ok I’m going to bed.

                          I think the NYT Georgia thing is just a hiccup.

                          But still this is anyone’s race. Quite a bit closer than I was expecting and hoping for.

                          Only non-witches get due process.

                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • J Offline
                            J Offline
                            jon-nyc
                            wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 06:23 last edited by
                            #93

                            Nate is saying Biden looking good in NE02.

                            Michigan and Wisconsin make him president

                            Only non-witches get due process.

                            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • Aqua LetiferA Offline
                              Aqua LetiferA Offline
                              Aqua Letifer
                              wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 06:24 last edited by
                              #94

                              BC56D9E9-2644-4A07-A9E7-901AA847B1D6.jpeg

                              Please love yourself.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • K Offline
                                K Offline
                                Klaus
                                wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 07:11 last edited by
                                #95

                                So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!

                                Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply 4 Nov 2020, 07:15
                                • K Klaus
                                  4 Nov 2020, 07:11

                                  So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!

                                  Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                  Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                  Aqua Letifer
                                  wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 07:15 last edited by
                                  #96

                                  @Klaus said in Calling the States:

                                  So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!

                                  I'm still up.

                                  Please love yourself.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • X Offline
                                    X Offline
                                    xenon
                                    wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 07:19 last edited by
                                    #97

                                    I’m cheating by being on the west coast

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • K Offline
                                      K Offline
                                      Klaus
                                      wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 10:51 last edited by
                                      #98

                                      Here's one thing I don't understand.

                                      Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                                      The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                                      RichR Aqua LetiferA 89th8 3 Replies Last reply 4 Nov 2020, 10:55
                                      • K Klaus
                                        4 Nov 2020, 10:51

                                        Here's one thing I don't understand.

                                        Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                                        The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                                        RichR Offline
                                        RichR Offline
                                        Rich
                                        wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 10:55 last edited by
                                        #99

                                        @Klaus

                                        Yeah, those were the days.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • K Klaus
                                          4 Nov 2020, 10:51

                                          Here's one thing I don't understand.

                                          Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?

                                          The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                                          Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                          Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                          Aqua Letifer
                                          wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 11:02 last edited by
                                          #100

                                          @Klaus said in Calling the States:

                                          The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?

                                          Candidates can gum up the works by demanding a recount.

                                          Please love yourself.

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