The Iran Nuclear Program thread

[LuFins Dad]

One thing I don’t get.. I would have expected an uprising inside of Iran. I mean, first we’ve seen just how successful the Mossad has been at intelligence gathering. We’ve also seen a lot more resistance by the populace over the last few years. I would have expected an internal uprising by this point, perhaps directed by Israeli agents in. The country.

[xenon]

There's no internet, the city is getting bombed and Trump warned everyone to evacuate. It's hard to agitate under those conditions.

[Renauda]

@LuFins-Dad

People rise up when the either the price of food is so high or so scarce they can’t feed their children. So far Iranian children and their parents and grandparents, particularly in cities, have not been going hungry.

[Mik]

I just don’t think we will enter the fray. The only thing we can add is the MOPs and there’s no guarantee they can put Fordo out of business, plus it would spread radiation over the region. If that facility is to be shut down it will have to be by cutting off their power supply, destroying the tunnel access and possibly in combination with a ground assault.

And don’t forget, every day is Taco Tuesday. If our ordinance failed it would destroy his presidency. I don’t believe he would risk that.

Our biggest threat here is overreach based on the Israeli successes. The mullahs have had their world rocked. At the very least their adventurism will be greatly chastened even if the regime manages to stay in power. We especially need to stay out of the regime change business. It’s what got us 45 years of Iran as we know it.

[jon-nyc]

Stop selling. I’m already supportive of US involvement.

[jon-nyc]

This is in Tel Aviv today.

[Mik]

Last night I said If our ordinance failed it would destroy his presidency. Upon reflection I think if we were successful, the resulting radiation spewed would do that same thing. We cannot win here by getting involved. .

[AndyD]

I sincerely hope someone takes out the threat of a nuclear ballistic missile capable Iran.
We've already got N Korea, that's more than enough.

Just give Israel a few of those bunker buster bombs if you ain't going to step up.

[jon-nyc]

We gave them the 5,000 lb version. But that won't do the job. The MOP will, but it weighs as much as a cement mixer. Only the B2 can deliver it. Only the US operates the B2.

[jon-nyc]

Israel's option would be a land-based special forces operation.

[AndyD]

So give them an old B2,
or a lift

[jon-nyc]

I honestly think we should delete Fordo for them. For the whole world, really.

[jon-nyc]

It's almost worth it just to see Tulsi resign.

[LuFins Dad]

@Mik said in The Iran Nuclear Program thread:

Last night I said If our ordinance failed it would destroy his presidency. Upon reflection I think if we were successful, the resulting radiation spewed would do that same thing. We cannot win here by getting involved. .

I’m not sure that would be the case. Fordow is buried so deeply that I would think the MOP would likely result in the facility collapsing in on itself trapping the uranium, not blasting it outward.

[jon-nyc]

Seems to me that the commando raid, blow it up from inside would be safer. But I really don't give a shit if Qom becomes uninhabitable for a few thousand years.

[Mik]

The international outcry about that would last even longer.

[jon-nyc]

Yeah I'm being flip when I say I don't care.

[AndyD]

Alternatively ought we let Iran carry on, see them develop portable nuclear packs, which they will give to their proxy fanatical terrorist friends.

When does this whole scenario become the invasion of Poland, the attack on Pearl Harbour for us?

For the Israelis October 7th was that line.

[jon-nyc]

The exact size of the military presence at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant is not publicly known, but based on defense analyses and satellite imagery, experts estimate:

⸻

Estimated Military Presence at Fordow

Permanent On-Site Security
• Likely 200–400 IRGC personnel, including:
• Facility guards
• Technical security teams
• Command staff and rapid response elements

These forces are probably drawn from the IRGC Quds and Aerospace forces, with access tightly controlled.

⸻

Perimeter & Area Security
• Additional 500–1,000 troops may be stationed at nearby IRGC bases that provide regional security for Fordow and Qom
• Likely include:
• Motorized infantry
• Air defense crews
• Logistics and support units

⸻

Air Defense Units
• Fordow is protected by dedicated air defense batteries:
• S-300PMU-2 system (mobile or semi-permanent)
• Iranian equivalents (e.g., Bavar-373, Khordad-15)
• These systems require dozens to hundreds of personnel to operate, maintain, and coordinate radar and missile systems

⸻

Total Military Footprint (Broad Estimate)
Component
Estimated Personnel
On-site security: 200–400
Regional IRGC presence: 500–1,000
Air defense teams: 100–300
Total: 800–1,700 (approx.)

[jon-nyc]

Whatever the normal staffing I’d imagine it’s a lot more this week.