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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. It’s starting

It’s starting

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
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  • L Offline
    L Offline
    LuFins Dad
    wrote on 4 Nov 2024, 22:39 last edited by LuFins Dad 11 Apr 2024, 22:40
    #194

    Internals are typically weighted towards the boss and can be far worse in accuracy than the published polls, but I can’t help but wonder what the internals are looking like to influence their decisions. Kamala has completely shifted again the last two days and hasn’t even mentioned Trump’s name once.

    Now that could be the strategy from the beginning. Start with joy, then paint Trump as Hitler, then close positive… But it feels more like switching tactics since the last one didn’t work.

    The Brad

    1 Reply Last reply
    • J Offline
      J Offline
      Jolly
      wrote on 4 Nov 2024, 23:40 last edited by
      #195

      The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

      “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

      Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

      G J 2 Replies Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 00:27
      • J Jolly
        4 Nov 2024, 23:40

        The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

        G Offline
        G Offline
        George K
        wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 00:27 last edited by
        #196

        @Jolly said in It’s starting:

        The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa

        Is that the Selzer poll?

        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

        T 1 Reply Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 10:14
        • M Offline
          M Offline
          Mik
          wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 02:09 last edited by
          #197

          IMG_4623.jpeg

          "The intelligent man who is proud of his intelligence is like the condemned man who is proud of his large cell." Simone Weil

          G 1 Reply Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 02:18
          • M Mik
            5 Nov 2024, 02:09

            IMG_4623.jpeg

            G Offline
            G Offline
            George K
            wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 02:18 last edited by
            #198

            @Mik said in It’s starting:

            IMG_4623.jpeg

            LOL. I told Mrs. George the same thing about 2 hours ago.

            I didn't, however, sing.

            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • M Offline
              M Offline
              Mik
              wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 02:52 last edited by
              #199

              Yer not a redhead either.

              A man’s got to know his limitations.

              "The intelligent man who is proud of his intelligence is like the condemned man who is proud of his large cell." Simone Weil

              1 Reply Last reply
              • A Away
                A Away
                Axtremus
                wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 06:10 last edited by
                #200

                https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

                Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases.

                That's Nate Silver's "pencils down" final answer for who his model predict will win the 2024 presidential election.

                G 1 Reply Last reply 6 Nov 2024, 04:07
                • A Away
                  A Away
                  Axtremus
                  wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 06:29 last edited by
                  #201

                  Seth's final analysis:

                  Link to video

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • G George K
                    5 Nov 2024, 00:27

                    @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                    The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa

                    Is that the Selzer poll?

                    T Offline
                    T Offline
                    taiwan_girl
                    wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:14 last edited by
                    #202

                    @George-K said in It’s starting:

                    @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                    The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa

                    Is that the Selzer poll?

                    I believe so. See my post #186

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • J Jolly
                      4 Nov 2024, 23:40

                      The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                      J Offline
                      J Offline
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:17 last edited by
                      #203

                      @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                      lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                      He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

                      Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                      T 1 Reply Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 10:18
                      • J jon-nyc
                        5 Nov 2024, 10:17

                        @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                        lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                        He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

                        T Offline
                        T Offline
                        taiwan_girl
                        wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:18 last edited by
                        #204

                        @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                        @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                        lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                        He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

                        People who want to last working for PResident Trump learn to tell him what he wants to hear.

                        Otherwise, they will not be long working for him.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • J Offline
                          J Offline
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:19 last edited by
                          #205

                          Such a good quality in a leader.

                          Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • J Offline
                            J Offline
                            Jolly
                            wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:26 last edited by
                            #206

                            Well, today we'll see...

                            “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                            Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • J Offline
                              J Offline
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:34 last edited by
                              #207

                              Today? Damn you’re optimistic.

                              Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • J Offline
                                J Offline
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:46 last edited by
                                #208

                                Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • J Offline
                                  J Offline
                                  jon-nyc
                                  wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:49 last edited by
                                  #209

                                  Interesting. From Nate.

                                  The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.

                                  Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                  J L 2 Replies Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 12:17
                                  • J Offline
                                    J Offline
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:53 last edited by
                                    #210

                                    Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                    G 1 Reply Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 13:54
                                    • J Offline
                                      J Offline
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:56 last edited by
                                      #211

                                      My gut still says Trump unless there’s a surge of women voters due to Dobbs.

                                      Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                      L 1 Reply Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 12:58
                                      • J jon-nyc
                                        5 Nov 2024, 11:49

                                        Interesting. From Nate.

                                        The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.

                                        J Offline
                                        J Offline
                                        Jolly
                                        wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 12:17 last edited by Jolly 11 May 2024, 12:18
                                        #212

                                        @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                                        Interesting. From Nate.

                                        The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.

                                        And that's how the media puts it's fingers on the scale. I doubt Trump vetted said comedian personally. The Trump Campaign issued a statement during the rally, disavowing that joke.

                                        But instead of reporting on the crowd, the enthusiasm of the people in MSG or any points the different speakers made, most of the media focused on the Nazi rally of years past or the PR joke.

                                        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                        J 1 Reply Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 14:50
                                        • J jon-nyc
                                          5 Nov 2024, 11:56

                                          My gut still says Trump unless there’s a surge of women voters due to Dobbs.

                                          L Offline
                                          L Offline
                                          LuFins Dad
                                          wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 12:58 last edited by
                                          #213

                                          @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                                          My gut still says Trump unless there’s a surge of unmarried women voters due to Dobbs.

                                          FIFYNNTTM

                                          The Brad

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                                          5 Nov 2024, 10:17


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