Skip to content
  • Categories
  • Recent
  • Tags
  • Popular
  • Users
  • Groups
Skins
  • Light
  • Cerulean
  • Cosmo
  • Flatly
  • Journal
  • Litera
  • Lumen
  • Lux
  • Materia
  • Minty
  • Morph
  • Pulse
  • Sandstone
  • Simplex
  • Sketchy
  • Spacelab
  • United
  • Yeti
  • Zephyr
  • Dark
  • Cyborg
  • Darkly
  • Quartz
  • Slate
  • Solar
  • Superhero
  • Vapor

  • Default (No Skin)
  • No Skin
Collapse

The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. It’s starting

It’s starting

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
234 Posts 15 Posters 6.2k Views
  • Oldest to Newest
  • Newest to Oldest
  • Most Votes
Reply
  • Reply as topic
Log in to reply
This topic has been deleted. Only users with topic management privileges can see it.
  • LuFins DadL Offline
    LuFins DadL Offline
    LuFins Dad
    wrote on last edited by LuFins Dad
    #187

    Welp…

    The Brad

    1 Reply Last reply
    • JollyJ Offline
      JollyJ Offline
      Jolly
      wrote on last edited by
      #188

      Wonder how much the NYT poll affected the graph?

      “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

      Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

      AxtremusA 1 Reply Last reply
      • JollyJ Jolly

        Wonder how much the NYT poll affected the graph?

        AxtremusA Offline
        AxtremusA Offline
        Axtremus
        wrote on last edited by
        #189

        @Jolly said in It’s starting:

        Wonder how much the NYT poll affected the graph?

        Click the link ... ol' Nate and his people tell you what polls most affected their last model update.

        https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

        1 Reply Last reply
        • HoraceH Offline
          HoraceH Offline
          Horace
          wrote on last edited by
          #190

          Paywall.

          Education is extremely important.

          LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
          • HoraceH Horace

            Paywall.

            LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins Dad
            wrote on last edited by
            #191

            @Horace said in It’s starting:

            Paywall.

            That parts not behind the paywall. Here’s a sheet with the influences for the National Popular Vote Count- https://static.dwcdn.net/data/6dLqU.csv

            Here’s PA - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/uyZgi.csv

            Michigan - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/p0MR1.csv

            AZ - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/2TzV1.csv

            NV - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/FwSWu.csv

            NC - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/LW63I.csv

            GA - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/zLfhh.csv

            WI - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/PMbPp.csv

            It’s all useless though. Either all the polls have for the first time in history gotten EVERYTHING absolutely correct (which has never happened once by even one pollster) or they are all very flawed and have p-hacked their polls to show a 50/50 shot. The fact that there are no outliers at all strongly indicate the latter.

            I will lay out a moderate bottle of whiskey that the results are well outside the margin of error. 4% separation in the swing states or more.

            The Brad

            1 Reply Last reply
            • CopperC Offline
              CopperC Offline
              Copper
              wrote on last edited by
              #192

              Who benefits from polls with false information?

              1 Reply Last reply
              • JollyJ Offline
                JollyJ Offline
                Jolly
                wrote on last edited by
                #193

                Kamala-lama-ding-dong.

                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                1 Reply Last reply
                • LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins Dad
                  wrote on last edited by LuFins Dad
                  #194

                  Internals are typically weighted towards the boss and can be far worse in accuracy than the published polls, but I can’t help but wonder what the internals are looking like to influence their decisions. Kamala has completely shifted again the last two days and hasn’t even mentioned Trump’s name once.

                  Now that could be the strategy from the beginning. Start with joy, then paint Trump as Hitler, then close positive… But it feels more like switching tactics since the last one didn’t work.

                  The Brad

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • JollyJ Offline
                    JollyJ Offline
                    Jolly
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #195

                    The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                    George KG jon-nycJ 2 Replies Last reply
                    • JollyJ Jolly

                      The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                      George KG Offline
                      George KG Offline
                      George K
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #196

                      @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                      The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa

                      Is that the Selzer poll?

                      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                      taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
                      • MikM Away
                        MikM Away
                        Mik
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #197

                        IMG_4623.jpeg

                        “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                        George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                        • MikM Mik

                          IMG_4623.jpeg

                          George KG Offline
                          George KG Offline
                          George K
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #198

                          @Mik said in It’s starting:

                          IMG_4623.jpeg

                          LOL. I told Mrs. George the same thing about 2 hours ago.

                          I didn't, however, sing.

                          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • MikM Away
                            MikM Away
                            Mik
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #199

                            Yer not a redhead either.

                            A man’s got to know his limitations.

                            “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • AxtremusA Offline
                              AxtremusA Offline
                              Axtremus
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #200

                              https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

                              Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases.

                              That's Nate Silver's "pencils down" final answer for who his model predict will win the 2024 presidential election.

                              George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                              • AxtremusA Offline
                                AxtremusA Offline
                                Axtremus
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #201

                                Seth's final analysis:

                                Link to video

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • George KG George K

                                  @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                                  The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa

                                  Is that the Selzer poll?

                                  taiwan_girlT Offline
                                  taiwan_girlT Offline
                                  taiwan_girl
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #202

                                  @George-K said in It’s starting:

                                  @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                                  The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa

                                  Is that the Selzer poll?

                                  I believe so. See my post #186

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • JollyJ Jolly

                                    The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                                    jon-nycJ Offline
                                    jon-nycJ Offline
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #203

                                    @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                                    lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                                    He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

                                    Only non-witches get due process.

                                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                    taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                      @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                                      lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                                      He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

                                      taiwan_girlT Offline
                                      taiwan_girlT Offline
                                      taiwan_girl
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #204

                                      @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                                      @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                                      lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                                      He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

                                      People who want to last working for PResident Trump learn to tell him what he wants to hear.

                                      Otherwise, they will not be long working for him.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • jon-nycJ Offline
                                        jon-nycJ Offline
                                        jon-nyc
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #205

                                        Such a good quality in a leader.

                                        Only non-witches get due process.

                                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • JollyJ Offline
                                          JollyJ Offline
                                          Jolly
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #206

                                          Well, today we'll see...

                                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                          1 Reply Last reply
                                          Reply
                                          • Reply as topic
                                          Log in to reply
                                          • Oldest to Newest
                                          • Newest to Oldest
                                          • Most Votes


                                          • Login

                                          • Don't have an account? Register

                                          • Login or register to search.
                                          • First post
                                            Last post
                                          0
                                          • Categories
                                          • Recent
                                          • Tags
                                          • Popular
                                          • Users
                                          • Groups