It’s starting

[LuFins Dad]

Welp…

[Jolly]

Wonder how much the NYT poll affected the graph?

[Axtremus]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

Wonder how much the NYT poll affected the graph?

Click the link ... ol' Nate and his people tell you what polls most affected their last model update.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[Horace]

Paywall.

[LuFins Dad]

@Horace said in It’s starting:

Paywall.

That parts not behind the paywall. Here’s a sheet with the influences for the National Popular Vote Count- https://static.dwcdn.net/data/6dLqU.csv

Here’s PA - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/uyZgi.csv

Michigan - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/p0MR1.csv

AZ - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/2TzV1.csv

NV - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/FwSWu.csv

NC - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/LW63I.csv

GA - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/zLfhh.csv

WI - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/PMbPp.csv

It’s all useless though. Either all the polls have for the first time in history gotten EVERYTHING absolutely correct (which has never happened once by even one pollster) or they are all very flawed and have p-hacked their polls to show a 50/50 shot. The fact that there are no outliers at all strongly indicate the latter.

I will lay out a moderate bottle of whiskey that the results are well outside the margin of error. 4% separation in the swing states or more.

[Copper]

Who benefits from polls with false information?

[Jolly]

Kamala-lama-ding-dong.

[LuFins Dad]

Internals are typically weighted towards the boss and can be far worse in accuracy than the published polls, but I can’t help but wonder what the internals are looking like to influence their decisions. Kamala has completely shifted again the last two days and hasn’t even mentioned Trump’s name once.

Now that could be the strategy from the beginning. Start with joy, then paint Trump as Hitler, then close positive… But it feels more like switching tactics since the last one didn’t work.

[Jolly]

The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

[George K]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa

Is that the Selzer poll?

[Mik]

[George K]

@Mik said in It’s starting:

LOL. I told Mrs. George the same thing about 2 hours ago.

I didn't, however, sing.

[Mik]

Yer not a redhead either.

A man’s got to know his limitations.

[Axtremus]

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases.

That's Nate Silver's "pencils down" final answer for who his model predict will win the 2024 presidential election.

[Axtremus]

Seth's final analysis:

Link to video

[taiwan_girl]

@George-K said in It’s starting:

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa

Is that the Selzer poll?

I believe so. See my post #186

[jon-nyc]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

[taiwan_girl]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

People who want to last working for PResident Trump learn to tell him what he wants to hear.

Otherwise, they will not be long working for him.

[jon-nyc]

Such a good quality in a leader.

[Jolly]

Well, today we'll see...